2027: Most lawmakers risk losing seats over e-transmission loophole – Igini
Former INEC Official Warns Lawmakers of Potential Loss of Seats in 2027
Barrister Mike Igini, a former Resident Electoral Commissioner with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), has issued a stark warning to members of the National Assembly regarding potential electoral challenges they may face in 2027. Igini states that a qualifying clause within the proposed Electoral Act Amendment Bill regarding real-time electronic transmission of polling results could jeopardize their positions.
In a statement he released on Sunday, Igini stressed that including a qualifying clause for the electronic transmission of results could expose lawmakers to the same vulnerabilities that contributed to the high turnover rates seen in previous assemblies.
“Evidence from electoral cycles between 2007 and 2023 indicates a persistent pattern of legislative attrition linked to result manipulations during the collation process,” Igini noted. He explained that many incumbents, who were denied renomination by party leaders, secured alternatives but ultimately lost their seats despite what they claimed to be victories at their polling units.
Igini described the composition of the current 10th Assembly as precarious, urging legislators to remove the qualifying clause and instead advocate for direct, real-time electronic result transmission.
He emphasized that real-time uploads to INEC’s Result Viewing Portal (IReV) would prevent post-poll alterations at collation centers, as accessible results would deter tampering.
The former commissioner characterized the turnover rates among lawmakers as “alarming,” citing figures from past assemblies. In the Senate, for instance, only 23 out of 109 members of the Sixth Senate (2007–2011) were re-elected, resulting in a 79 percent turnover. Similar high turnover rates were observed in subsequent Senates, with the current 10th Senate (2023–2027) showing 77 percent turnover.
The trend in the House of Representatives mirrored these statistics. The Sixth House (2007–2011) saw just 80 of 360 members returned, corresponding to a 78 percent turnover. In stark contrast, the Ninth House (2019–2023) had the lowest attrition rate at 57 percent, while the current 10th House recorded a 70 percent turnover, with only 109 returning members.
Igini warned that this chronic instability impairs institutional memory, weakens legislative oversight, and wastes public resources on recurring induction and training programs. He reiterated that the absence of secure electronic transmission makes it difficult for legislators to defend claims of constituency support effectively.
Addressing concerns about network coverage, Igini cited a nationwide survey conducted by INEC and the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) before his departure from office in 2022, indicating over 97 percent coverage of 2G and 3G networks. He noted the commission’s successful deployment of electronic transmission in more than 105 off-cycle elections.
Reflecting on his tenure, Igini recalled a successful real-time electronic transmission pilot conducted in 2012 during the second-term election of Governor Liyel Imoke in Cross River State.
Igini asserted that under Section 160 of the 1999 Constitution, INEC is endowed with regulatory authority to establish its own rules and manage procedures for its duties. He urged the National Assembly to eliminate the qualifying clause and reinstate the clear requirement for direct, real-time electronic transmission of polling unit results. Failure to act, he warned, could result in historical repercussions for the current Assembly.
He also called upon the judiciary to maintain its role in upholding democracy and the rule of law.
