Bangladesh election: What’s at stake for India, China, Pakistan? | Bangladesh Election 2026 News
As Bangladesh gears up for its first elections since the 2024 ousting of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League party, international attention is sharply focused on its intricate political landscape. Currently, the interim government is led by Muhammad Yunus, a Nobel laureate, while the major contenders for the upcoming polls are the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JIB), both having initiated their campaign late January.
The Awami League has been excluded from this election as a consequence of its severe crackdown on student-led protests resulting in approximately 1,400 fatalities. Hasina, now in exile in India and sentenced to death in absentia for her role during the protests, criticized the elections as an “exclusive” process incapable of unifying the nation. This political upheaval has resulted in a significant shift in Bangladesh’s geopolitical alignment, with historically strong ties to India deteriorating and relations with Pakistan warming, alongside an increase in cooperation with China.
India has traditionally viewed Bangladesh as a strategic partner, crucial for maintaining stability in South Asia. Before Hasina’s ousting, trade relations were robust, with India supplying goods worth $11.1 billion while importing $1.8 billion. However, the political strife following her departure has strained these ties, marked by trade restrictions from both sides. Analysts have observed a decline in Indo-Bangladeshi relations, exacerbated by the rise of anti-India sentiments and incidents of violence against the Hindu minority in Bangladesh.
As the elections approach, India hopes for a governing body that will foster better relations and move away from the religiously charged politics represented by the JIB. Although the BNP has historically been critical of Indian influence, it hasn’t completely severed ties, suggesting that future governments may find it necessary to address India’s role in regional security and economic stability.
In contrast, Pakistan sees a brighter prospective relationship with Bangladesh following Hasina’s regime. Pakistan has explored diplomatic and military ties with Yunus’s interim government, reestablishing direct trade and resuming flights to Bangladesh after a 14-year hiatus. Analysts indicate that Pakistan is poised to benefit from any shift towards Islamist governance in Bangladesh, particularly if JIB takes power, as it could leverage anti-Indian sentiment.
China, maintaining its long-standing partnership with Bangladesh, has continued to foster economic ties under Yunus’s administration, securing substantial investments. Beijing appears to cautiously monitor the elections; it has engaged various political parties to ensure that its economic interests are upheld regardless of the election outcome.
As the elections draw nearer, all three countries—India, Pakistan, and China—are keen watchers. India’s current safeguard strategy emphasizes stability in Bangladesh to prevent extremism, while Islamabad seeks a partner to contest Indian dominance in the region. China, for its part, views Bangladesh as a vital avenue for expansion in South Asia, intent on preserving its influence amidst the ongoing political transition.
Ultimately, the elections signal a critical juncture for Bangladesh, with implications for regional relations and the direction of its domestic policies. The outcome will not only affect its internal dynamics but also reshape the geopolitical environment in South Asia, influencing how neighboring powers interact with Bangladesh moving forward.
