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With 2023 drawing to a close and the season at the halfway point, football fans are already dreaming about what lies in store for the year ahead – and the rest of the season.
BetMGM has commissioned a stats-powered ‘supercomputer’ to predict the rest of the season, including the final Premier League table, the Champions League, the Europa League, the UEFA Conference League, the Championship, Ligue 1, Serie A, the Bundesliga and LaLiga.
And with Liverpool fans having the most festive cheer as they sit at the top of the Premier League currently, it’s Manchester City fans who will once again be crowing come May.
According to the data, Pep Guardiola’s men have a huge 55.2% chance of winning a record fourth consecutive title, despite currently sitting in fourth. With City pipping Liverpool to the title, Arsenal and the season’s surprise package Aston Villa make up the rest of the top four – with Villa now having a 65.8% chance of securing Champions League football next season.
Manchester United are well out of the race, with just a 2.36% chance of a turnaround into the top four, while disappointing Chelsea seem destined for mid-table mediocrity in 10th.
Meanwhile, things are looking grim for the current bottom three – with Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United all destined for the drop. The Blades have a staggering 97.65% probability of going down to the Championship. Second-tier high-flyers Leicester and Ipswich are tipped to grab automatic promotion back to the big time, leaving Southampton, Leeds, West Brom and Sunderland to battle it out in the play-offs.
The new year looks to be doubly sweet for City fans – with the predictions not only showing a turnaround to claim the Premier League title but a competition-leading 30% chance of retaining the Champions League.
In fact, the Premier League is set to celebrate a historic clean sweep of European titles, with Liverpool also having a 30% probability of winning the Europa League and Aston Villa with a 33.78% chance of claiming the UEFA Europa Conference League.
City will have to fight off Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Arsenal for the crown, while Jurgen Klopp is facing a challenge from Bayer Leverkusen and Brighton. Lille and Fiorentina are Villa’s greatest threats to a first European title since the 1982 European Cup.
Elsewhere in Europe, Bayern Munich continue their dominance of the Bundesliga despite Leverkusen’s superb showing this season. Real Madrid fight off plucky Girona for the LaLiga title, while Inter continue their lead in Serie A. PSG take home Ligue 1, but are well out of the running in their quest for Champions League glory.
All data provided by BetMGM. Visit betmgm.co.uk 18+ BeGambleAware.org
The data:
The prediction model, powered by Stats Perform, estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position in the competition. We can therefore see how successful a team’s season is likely to be, whether it’s their relegation or title chances.
The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Stats Perform’s team rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.
The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.
