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The Euro 2024 knockout games are now set in stone, and the 36 games we have seen so far have given us a chance to pass judgement on all of the 16 sides going through.
To help us along, we crunched a few numbers that took into account the points accumulated, goals for and against and expected goals for and against to start us off,
Then – having kept an eye on every group stage game – applied a bit of the old-fashioned eye test and some gut feeling to sort them into a more correct-feeling order, taking into account the relative difficulty of each group in the process. Scientific? Not really – but we’re fairly content with our placements nonetheless…
16. Slovenia
Going by results alone, knockout stage debutants should be down a few places, level with Denmark: we’re not taking yellow cards into account here.
But they sit where they are because the xG numbers suggest they have had a little bit of luck along the way, ranking poorly on that front at both ends of the pitch – and they’re one of just a handful of teams to have made it through without winning a game yet.
Let’s not take anything away from them, though. If we were taking sentimentality into account, Slovenia’s advance to the round of 16 would earn them significant bonus points. But because we’re just cold hard horrible people, we have to regard them as unlikely to get past the round of 16 – much as we’d love to be surprised.
15. Slovakia
A similar story to Slovenia: we were delighted to see Slovakia edge their way to an unexpected victory over Belgium, but they’ve failed to really build on that, letting leads slip against Ukraine in a 2-1 defeat and Romania in a 1-1 draw.
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Slovakia have not produced a lot in front of goal, and have not been especially defensively solid either – though it’s kind of hard to draw definitive conclusions from a very weird group where everyone got every result against everyone else.
14. Georgia
Not many could have predicted that a nation branded with the underdog label at Euro 2024 could have made it this far, but Georgia are into the knockout stages after a stunning display against Portugal.
Competing at their first-ever major tournament, the debutants produced the shock so far by seeing off the heavily-tipped Portugal thanks to a goal in each half. Young sensation Kvicha Kvaratskhelia opened the scoring wonderfully and surely added another £20 million to his ever-rising price tag with a smashing finish in the early stages.
But it is the sheer spirit of the squad that cannot be understated as they prepare to face Spain in the last 16, with a never-say-attitude and the rest of Europe behind them, who knows when the fairytale end for a nation already punching well above their weight so far.
13. Belgium
It felt even before the tournament like they were in the fading days of their golden generation, and Belgium have done nothing to dissuade us from that notion with their sloppy, unambitious performances so far.
Belgium got what they deserved for that in their opening-game defeat to Slovakia, leaving them nervously scrapping to get out of a dead-level group that they were expected to dominate.
As pragmatic as it may have been, the sight of Kevin de Bruyne and co desperately trying to keep the ball in the corner to see out the clock in the final seconds of their clash with Ukraine, despite knowing a draw would only give them second place and a tough old round of 16 clash against France, told a pretty pitiful story.
12. Romania
Yes, correct, we’re doing a #banter by putting the three Group E sides level with one another – but we’ve broken with alphabetical protocol to put Romania in ahead of Slovakia on the basis of their lovely showing in their 3-0 win over Ukraine.
Besides, those of us who remember Romania from the 1990s will always have a bit of a soft spot for them, which is accentuated by the lovely sound of the name ‘Hagi’ at Euro 2024. (We told you this wasn’t entirely scientific).
Alright, let’s get serious: Group E ended all-square across the board for a reason, namely that none of the sides in it were actually especially good.
11. Turkey
Turkey’s passage to the last 16 was confirmed thanks to a strong showing against ten-man Czechia and the last time they were drawn in a group with Portugal and Czech Republic they made it to the last eight back in 2008, eventually bowing out against Germany.
Vincenzo Montella’s side are in fine form in Germany this summer and could still have a huge part to play as we reach the knockout stages, no thanks to the fine form of midfield maestro Hakan Calhanoglu. The Inter Milan star won Serie A in the build-up to the competition and could still make his mark on the competition.
Boasting talented Real Madrid teenager Arda Guler in their ranks too, the 19-year-old flair and trickery could be the vital spark Turkey need to ignite the tournament once and for all this summer.
10. Italy
A surprisingly low entry for the reigning champions, but Italy have proven true to the shaky form that saw them miss out on the 2022 World Cup and just about scrape through their Euros qualification campaign automatically.
Italy had to come from behind to beat heavily-unfancied Albania, were dominated by Spain in a 1-0 that did nothing to reflect the actual run of play, and needed a last-minute equaliser against Croatia to claim second place in Group B – though they would have gone through anyway, in fairness.
Their underlying xG numbers are meanwhile dreadful, barely any better than Slovenia’s with less than one expected goal per game (0.87) and one of the highest xGA numbers of the 16 knockout qualifiers (1.34). They’re going to have to be a lot better.
9. Netherlands
Yes, they were in the group of death, but – alongside France – they still finished below Austria and had to settle for third place.
This looks like far from a vintage Dutch side, with their reputation for organised, defender-dizzying Total Football giving way to a largely counter-attacking side that seems to be getting by on pure vibes.
There’s an unshakable lightweight and inconsistent feeling to this Netherlands team at both ends: they were solid but boring against France, and exciting but leaky against Austria. We’re not sure what they are, and we aren’t convinced they do either.
8. Denmark
The surprise package of the last Euros have instead picked up more where they left off at the 2022 World Cup, where they were eliminated in the group stage after scoring just a single goal in their three group games.
Three draws from three games in the Group of Boredom does not scream ‘going through to the quarters’, especially not with a tough round of 16 clash against neighbours and hosts Germany now awaiting them.
Nonetheless, they edge in ahead of Italy and the Netherlands because they have at least been very defensively solid.
7. Switzerland
Tipped as potential dark horses before the tournament began, France’s vanquishers in Euro 2020 round of 16 have so far done what has been expected of them by progressing through a pretty generous group behind obvious leaders Germany.
If the Swiss had been able to hold onto their lead against the hosts, it would have bumped them up into Austria territory.
As it stands, it’s so far, so fine for Switzerland…and the form suggests the could yet pull off another famous knockout victory this time around as they take on an unconvincing Italy.
6. England
Yeah, yeah, we know: this feels quite generous. Very generous, even. Let us point you to the many, many reasons we think they’ve been so bad, because: we think they’ve been bad. And yes, that’s a concern.
However, they have three big trump cards in their favour. First, there are several other ‘big’ teams that we think have been just as bad; we simply don’t get as upset about it cos they’re not England.
Second: they haven’t actually lost a game yet, unlike the majority of the sides we’ve placed below them, and that is worth a lot more in a knockout tournament than it would be if this tournament were decided by a 24-team fat league table. Go and have a look at how Greece and Portugal won their Euros titles and tell us we’re wrong.
Finally, and most importantly: defensively, the numbers suggest there hasn’t been a better side at this tournament. That might be happening around their own box more than we would like, but ultimately, how many big saves have you seen Jordan Pickford forced into? Exactly.
5. Austria
If our England placement is being informed by the numbers more than the eye, then Austria are the polar the opposite: their stats don’t actually come out at all well, with a lot of big-value chances conceded.
But those who have watched Ralf Rangnick’s side will tell you they’ve been one of the Euros’ most pleasant surprises.
Unfortunate to lose to France off an own goal, convincing victors (in the end) against Poland, brilliant to watch in one of the games of the tournament against the Netherlands, and ultimately, deserving winners of this year’s toughest group. That all goes a long way in our book. (Or…website. It’s the modern book. You simply have to be on e-mail these days.)
4. France
Coming into a summer tournament, you know you’re going to get one of two things from France: they’re either going to be really dominant, or they’re going to absolutely stink it up.
Rules are made to be broken, though, and actually, this year, we don’t really know what to make of Didier Deschamps’ side. At times they play some lovely stuff in the build-up, but in common with a lot of other sides so far this summer they have a really weird tendency to play exactly the wrong ball to take advantage of their most promising breaks.
So why have we got them so high? Well, we’ll first say the the gap between France and our top three is an absolute gulf at this point: we honestly see less distance between France and, say, Slovenia, than we do to our team in third place.
But the stats have convinced us France have the highest potential of a largely underwhelming chasing pack. Their expected goal difference per game actually rates better than Germany’s (1.16) – they’re just not putting away the chances they’ve created. Plus, they were missing their biggest star for one of their group games. If anyone is going to hit their stride in the knockouts, we dare say it will be France.
3. Portugal
Hmm. Honestly, we’re unconvinced tactically, just as we were when we were present to see them in action against Finland in a pre-tournament friendly. Yes, they won 4-2 that day, but also: Francisco Conceicao struggled against a left-back who plays for Exeter City, and they looked susceptible on the counter-attack even before a 34-year-old Teemu Pukki came off the bench to score twice.
We honestly don’t want to put too much stock in a completely meaningless friendly; the issue is that Portugal earned early entry to the knockout stages purely by having loads of really good players they could throw into the box to score goals in one of the competition’s easier groups. It’s been attrition more than free-flowing quality.
But…the fact Portugal have coasted through without any trouble despite their fairly rudimentary setup should arguably be worrying to the rest of Europe. Besides, their first XI is arguably the best of anybody’s out there on paper, so why complicate things any more than that? Maybe England could actually learn a thing or two from that…
2. Germany
We’re not taking anything away from Germany by saying they had a pretty easy group, but it is the one thing that keeps them off the top spot after their thumping opening win over Scotland and a convincing victory over Hungary.
For balance, nor are we especially taking any marks (no pun intended) away from Germany for their draw with Switzerland: that point was all they needed to guarantee top spot, and you can understand if they willingly left a bit in the tank for the more important tests ahead.
Germany have been underachieving for years, but on home soil they have looked much more like their old selves. The tournament’s highest scorers so far, the most composed and controlling side on the ball, and one of the most defensively capable sides out there – it really was a tough shout between Germany and our actual top pick…
1. Spain
Won every game. Not conceded a goal. Have been good and look like they’re going to get better. Already beaten a big boy in the shape of Italy. Finished top of a nominally tough group. Tick, tick, tick, tick, tick.
Germany and Portugal can make a very strong case for themselves, but Spain are the side we’ve been most impressed with given the respective standards of opposition so far…and there’s still a feeling that we’ve not even really seen them at their best yet.
