What the Trump assassination attempt means for US politics

On Saturday, the attempted assassination of Donald Trump at a campaign rally left the former president bloodied but not seriously injured, an audience member and the gunman dead and two other spectators seriously wounded.

A few hours later, in a brief press conference, President Joe Biden condemned the shooting and expressed sympathy to his opponent, calling him “Donald” in a rare break from the animosity between the two men.

Mainstream political figures and pundits from across the political spectrum also immediately expressed concern for Trump and the other victims and condemned this act of political violence.

By contrast, many people on social media were quick to embrace conspiracy theories. Trump detractors speculated that the shooting was staged, while his supporters suspected a left-wing attack, even after the FBI identified the deceased gunman as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, apparently a registered Republican.

The scepticism on both sides of the political spectrum represents the deep political divides that exist in the United States. The two presidential campaigns will undoubtedly seek to make the most out of the incident in the coming days. But in their pursuit of political gains, the two parties should not ignore a major escalation of political violence that needs to be urgently addressed.

A presidential race reset

Trump emerged from the incident triumphant. As security agents escorted him offstage, he defiantly pumped his fist in the air while his supporters chanted “USA, USA!” The former president is basking in all the public and media attention.

The spotlight shifting to Trump is ironically what the Biden campaign wants as well. The focus on the incumbent’s fitness for office and cognitive abilities has eaten away at his support.

The hope is now that all the attention on Trump will highlight his extremism, legal troubles, and his party’s far-right agenda, detailed in the extensive Project 2025 plan, from which he has unsuccessfully tried to distance himself. The Democrats believe that this could encourage swing voters to move away from him.

Despite Trump being a victim of this assassination attempt, he is the candidate who has been associated with encouraging political violence: from his supporters assaulting Capitol Hill during the January 6 insurrection to mocking the near-fatal attack against Nancy Pelosi’s husband by a hammer-wielding intruder seeking to kidnap the congresswoman.

Notably, the former Speaker of the House was one of the first political figures to comment on the Trump shooting, posting on X that “as one whose family has been the victim of political violence, I know firsthand that political violence of any kind has no place in our society”.

As the Biden campaign enjoys a break in the media scrutiny of the president’s cognitive abilities, Trump – emboldened by the incident – is heading to the Republican National Convention where his nomination will be confirmed. He will likely use this stage to capitalise on the assassination attempt as much as possible.

Polarisation and violence

The shooting fits well into the narrative that Trump has been robbed of his second term, attacked and victimised. Since his re-election loss bid in 2020, he has presented himself as the target of the Biden administration, making unfounded claims of “electoral interference” and painting all the legal cases launched against him as political persecution.

Trump has even pushed the narrative that the 2022 FBI raid on his Mar-a-Lago residence to retrieve classified documents was an attempt by the feds to assassinate him.

Trump’s base has been quick to react to any act perceived to harm him. For example, after his conviction on felony charges by a New York jury in May, supporters called for attacks on jurors, the death of the judge and riots.

Journalists on the scene of the shooting at the rally on Saturday reported threats and taunts from the crowd immediately after the incident. A reporter for Axios even witnessed some Trump supporters trying to break into the media area before being stopped by security guards.

So far Trump has chosen to moderate his rhetoric. He has called for unity and “not allowing evil to win”. Given that he thrives on conspiracy theories and polarising messaging, it remains to be seen whether he will discourage his base from engaging in them following the shooting.

Trump has the opportunity to put the peace and security of the country ahead of his personal ambition. Perhaps coming this close to death will change his perspective on stirring up his supporters.

If not, Saturday’s shooting could be the start of a very perilous time for America. We have seen his supporters engage in mass violence on January 6 over imagined oppression. And there have been other actors, such as right-wing organisations like the Proud Boys, who have engaged in political violence and various individual fanatics who have perpetrated mass shootings and other attacks.

The spread of conspiracy theories and apocalyptic rhetoric within the right have encouraged such violent acts. The attempted assassination may pour more fuel into the fire of violent radicalism.

That is why it is crucial for Trump and his Republican allies, as well as Biden and the Democrats, to address the growing polarisation in the country. Political violence must not become a staple of American politics.

Saturday’s shooting was a tragedy that was just inches short of becoming one of the darkest days in American history. It was also an inflection point for this year’s presidential race and for the nature of our politics. The current and former presidents each have an opportunity to stop this escalation of tensions within American society and help ensure peace and decency prevail in American politics.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.