Is southern Yemen’s next phase being decided on the ground? | Politics
Yemeni Landscape Shaped by Security Dynamics Amid Political Turmoil
Recent months in southern Yemen have highlighted a shift from purely political interpretations of the region to a focus on security and military issues. Developments have emphasized that the stability and power dynamics in these governorates under government control hinge on the resolution of security management and the unification of military command.
The ongoing rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has also posed significant implications for the balance of power in southern Yemen, as both nations have played crucial roles in the region’s military, political, and economic landscapes.
A multifaceted security structure has emerged in the southern governorates, consisting of both official military units and groups that surfaced during the conflict. While some units are aligned with state institutions, others have received support from the UAE, including forces associated with the Southern Transitional Council (STC). These forces number in the tens of thousands and were shaped by local circumstances during the ongoing conflict.
In January, the STC announced its dissolution in Hadhramaut and al-Mahra, yet security control remains inconsistent across the region. The STC’s military and security formations have not been entirely disbanded; some have been repurposed, while the future of others is uncertain.
In Aden, Yemen’s temporary capital, security agencies operate within a complicated framework. Some units previously aligned with the STC have either lost personnel and equipment or undergone renaming and redeployments. However, established influences persist, indicating that any leadership changes reflect attempts to recalibrate power rather than establish a long-lasting resolution.
This uneven state of authority extends to Lahij, Abyan, Dhale, Shabwah, and Hadhramaut, where the government’s ability to exert control fluctuates, along with the collaboration between official security forces and units that arose during the conflict.
A critical issue facing the government is the integration of various military and security formations into the Ministries of Defence and Interior. The state aims to eliminate parallel security authorities, but this process is fraught with challenges. Disparate funding sources, differing political allegiances, and concerns among local commanders about losing their influence complicate the integration efforts. Consequently, the approach appears gradual, relying on restructuring rather than decisive actions that might risk igniting conflict.
The government, based in Aden, is navigating a delicate situation: it must assert its security authority without sparking further internal strife. Achieving a transition from a multiplicity of armed groups to a unified state authority requires political consensus, regional cooperation, and international support. Any rapid moves to consolidate security could reignite clashes, especially amid existing tensions related to the Saudi–Emirati dispute.
Thus, the government’s priority remains the establishment of a stable security environment. This emphasis cannot be divorced from regional considerations, as Saudi Arabia views stability in Yemen as vital for its national security and the integrity of its southern border.
The discord between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi has intensified, particularly following Yemen’s request for the withdrawal of Emirati forces. These tensions further complicate the crisis, especially with Saudi accusations that the UAE continues to bolster the STC’s presence.
Yemen’s situation is intertwined with broader regional dynamics, impacting maritime routes and the balance of power across the Horn of Africa. Consequently, international actors, notably the United States, are closely monitoring developments in Yemen to prevent a security collapse that could destabilize the region further.
In the coming phase, the Yemeni government is expected to continue its efforts to consolidate security in Aden and other southern districts while gradually integrating military units and maintaining political balance to avert renewed conflicts.
The outcome of these efforts will be pivotal in determining whether Yemen can move toward stability or will face further power restructuring. The pressing question remains: who will ultimately establish effective control over security in the region, especially in light of ongoing pressures on the Southern Transitional Council that may escalate tensions further?
