Are African ‘water wars’ on the horizon as AU puts the issue on its agenda? | Water News
Johannesburg, South Africa — Africa is experiencing increased climate-related challenges as it enters 2026, marked by deadly Cyclone Gezani in Madagascar and a surge in waterborne diseases across flood-affected Mozambique. The continent also faces severe drought conditions, leading to significant livestock losses along the Kenya-Somalia border. These crises come as African leaders convene for a summit focusing on the vital resource of water.
The African Union (AU) has chosen water as the theme for its 2026 summit, aiming to address its significance for life, development, and sustainability. While this choice might appear neutral, experts contend that the issue is deeply political.
“Water is life,” said Sanusha Naidu, a foreign policy analyst at the Institute for Global Dialogue in South Africa. “However, it is becoming a commodity under corporatization and access disputes. This is not just a humanitarian issue; it poses concerns for peace and security.”
As climate change intensifies, it exerts pressure on water resources, creating points of conflict. Analysts cite various tensions stemming from upstream-downstream disputes over shared resources, the use of water as a weapon in conflicts, and industrial claims on water, often to the detriment of local populations.
Water-related disputes are evident in interstate relations, such as those between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Nile River, as well as in domestic tensions, illustrated by conflicts between herders and farmers in Nigeria. Recent protests in Madagascar, driven by failed infrastructure and service delivery, further underscore the broader implications of water scarcity.
The World Meteorological Organization notes that Africa’s climate crisis is disproportionately severe—temperature increases on the continent have exceeded global averages. Dhesigen Naidoo, a senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, asserts that the climate crisis is being felt chiefly as a water crisis, exacerbated by severe weather events and diminishing management capabilities.
Too much or too little water both contribute to food scarcity, increased migration, and a heightened risk of conflict. Naidoo highlights the correlation between resource strain and the activities of militant groups like al-Shabab and Boko Haram, pointing to the dire consequences that arise in areas lacking basic resources.
In northern Nigeria, conflicts have escalated as armed groups recruit from vulnerable populations, while intercommunal clashes between farmers and herders escalate over diminishing arable land. Beyond direct conflicts, water shortages are also igniting broader geopolitical tensions, exemplified by recent protests in South Africa over prolonged water outages.
The AU summit’s emphasis on water is a critical yet overdue response to the escalating crisis, Naidu argues. She emphasizes the need for collective accountability among governments, local officials, corporations, and civil society to address water challenges.
Magnus Taylor, deputy director at the International Crisis Group, notes that while the AU may release a communique post-summit, the organizational limitations make it unlikely to result in binding agreements on water management.
Emerging innovations from Africa, such as non-sewered sanitation systems and alternative water distribution methods, demonstrate potential resilience and leadership in the face of the crisis. However, Naidu warns against acceptance of poor service levels, asserting that water scarcity is a non-negotiable issue that demands urgent action.
“Tolerance for a lack of services can lead to stagnation,” she said. “But one cannot afford to accept a lack of water without dire consequences.”
