Conference Championship Betting Guide: Spread, moneyline, over/under picks for first round of NFL Playoffs

With the AFC and NFC Championship video games slated for Sunday, the 2020 NFL season has reached its ultimate two matchups earlier than Tremendous Bowl Sunday. It’s the second-biggest stage within the sport, and it has already generated a ton of betting exercise. Bettors will likely be wanting again on the 19 weeks that led as much as this ultimate 4 weekend, on the lookout for any angles they will discover in opposition to the unfold, on the moneyline, or on the over/below totals.

Each week, this column supplies an in depth breakdown of our favourite bets, weaving in a preview of unique knowledge from BetQL. This compilation serves as a mere sneak preview of all that BetQL gives. Verify us out now to disclose our full betting predictions for each recreation of the convention championship spherical, together with projections and greatest wager rankings from our NFL Greatest Wager Mannequin.

All knowledge introduced is as of Friday morning. You may monitor all NFL line motion on  BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.

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Convention Championship Betting Picks: Unfold choose of the week

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+three.5) at Inexperienced Bay Packers

My favourite unfold play of the week can be to purchase a half-point and take the Payments +three.5 at Kansas Metropolis, but when I’ve to take a ramification at its present place, I really feel compelled to go in opposition to 65 p.c of sharp bettors and go together with Tom Brady and the Buccaneers getting +three.5 in Inexperienced Bay.

My longtime good friend Steve has been a loyal Tampa Bay fan for 20-plus years, and he hates this choose due to the Bucs’ dismal monitor report. “They’re going to get beat unhealthy this weekend,” Steve stated. “That’s what they do.” 

However they haven’t had the best and most clutch quarterback of all-time below middle till this season. Don’t get me mistaken, I’ve by no means been an enormous Tom Brady fanboy regardless of my New England lineage, however I do acknowledge his contributions to the Patriots’ dynasties, and to the NFL as an entire. The person by no means will get flustered on the most important phases. He competes till the very finish.

The Bucs might not win Sunday, however I merely don’t see them shedding by greater than a subject purpose. They compelled 4 turnovers and held Drew Brees and the Saints to 294 whole yards (190 passing) of their 30-20 divisional-round victory. They put up 507 offensive yards (365 passing) in opposition to a superb Washington protection one week prior, good for a 31-23 wild card win. Brady has thrown 16 touchdowns and only one interception over the course of Tampa’s previous six video games.

Let’s additionally not overlook that the Packers fell to the Bucs 38-10 within the first Battle of the Bays this season in Week 6. Brady went 17-of-27 for 166 yards and two TDs that week, ending with a 104.9 QB score. Tampa logged 5 sacks for 53 yards and compelled Packers QB Aaron Rodgers to throw two interceptions. Pack operating again Aaron Jones managed simply 15 yards on 10 carries. Inexperienced Bay scored just one landing within the loss.

That recreation was clearly an outlier in Rodgers’ incredible season, for which he’ll probably garner MVP honors. Nevertheless, Rodgers has had his justifiable share of struggles in huge moments, notably within the postseason. Will All-Professional wideout Davante Adams as soon as once more be stymied by Tampa’s underrated secondary? Will the Bucs’ line of defense disrupt Rodgers within the pocket? Will Devin White keep his borderline-inhuman fee of productiveness? These are all distinct prospects.

BetQL’s NFL Greatest Wager Mannequin places three stars on the Bucs overlaying the three.5 factors. It additionally factors out an attention-grabbing development: Tampa Bay has gone 7-1 in opposition to defensive items permitting over 5.6 yards per play this season. Inexperienced Bay has allowed simply over 5.5 yards per play in 2020.

Finally, I’ve the Packers profitable 27-24, however it is going to be a wild journey to the end line and no one will likely be respiratory simple till the ultimate whistle.

Convention Championship Betting Picks: Moneyline choose of the week

Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (-170) vs. Buffalo Payments

It’s so tough to select in opposition to the Buffalo, who I’ve touted as a breakout contender since earlier than this loopy season began. Josh Allen has grown by leaps and bounds in entrance of all of our eyes and is on a collision-course with historical past in a incredible run of prime-time conquests. However alas, he’s not Patrick Mahomes, and the Payments simply don’t measure as much as the dominating depth chart of the defending champions.

If Mahomes clears the concussion protocol and performs Sunday, it’s merely unattainable to select in opposition to Kansas Metropolis on the moneyline. The query marks across the well being of the reigning Tremendous Bowl MVP are the one purpose these odds are so good. In any other case, we might probably be seeing KC +170 as an alternative of -170.

Winners make profitable performs, and Mahomes has proved time and time once more that he’s the most effective within the NFL on the massive stage. The Chiefs completed the common season with the most effective report, one way or the other bettering upon its 2019 offense. Kansas Metropolis additionally significantly benefited from the rent of Steve Spagnuolo as defensive coordinator. The Chiefs cracked the highest 10 in fewest factors allowed this season and completed fifth within the NFL in interceptions.

The majestic union of Allen and star Payments broad receiver Stefon Diggs has been a incredible story this season, and they’re undoubtedly going to be wreaking havoc on the league for years to come back. That stated, Kansas Metropolis has far too many playmakers, together with the always-explosive wideout Tyreek Hill and maybe the most effective pass-catching tight finish ever in Travis Kelce. The Payments will quickly get their time within the solar, however I simply don’t assume it’s this yr.

Convention Championship Betting Picks: Over/below choose of the week

Inexperienced Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: OVER 51.5

BetQL likes the Payments-Chiefs recreation to go UNDER 54 factors, however let’s face it: It’s extra enjoyable to wager on the OVER within the playoffs. Thus, we’re rooting for a barnburner within the Rodgers-Brady showdown on Sunday afternoon.

Statistics are on our facet right here. The Buccaneers have scored at the least 30 factors of their previous 5 contests and hit 44 twice in that span. Inexperienced Bay has hit 30-plus in seven of its previous eight video games, whereas reaching 40 twice. The Bucs are the third-highest scoring workforce within the NFL with the seventh-most yards on the season. The Pack are the top-scoring workforce within the NFL and produced the fifth-most yards.

These defenses have each been good this season, however their quarterbacks have been higher. This will likely be a battle of two cagey veterans, and it appears extremely unlikely that both will let it turn into a defensive slugfest. There’s all the time a danger going with the gang — 79 p.c of sharp cash is on the OVER on this one — however investing within the factors potential of two future first-ballot Corridor-of-Fame QBs appears good to me.

For extra betting evaluation and data, head over to BetQL and take a look at our mannequin’s greatest bets, sharp knowledge, and far more for each playoff recreation! You will discover all updated NFL lines, spreads, and odds at BetQL!