Does Reform UK’s election success signal a far-right future for Britain?

Unlike the French legislative elections in which a surprise leftist surge foiled the far right at the last minute, Britain’s July 4 parliamentary polls went almost exactly as predicted. Frustrated with the rising cost of living, economic stagnation, increasing poverty, deepening inequality and myriad failures related to the delivery of Brexit, British voters announced their complete rejection of the Conservatives, who had been at the helm of the country for 14 years. As such, Keir Starmer’s centre-left Labour Party won nearly two-thirds of the seats in the House of Commons, seemingly marking the beginning of a new era in British politics.

Alongside Tories’ spectacular defeat and Labour’s return to power after over a decade in opposition, however, there was one other story in this election that received a lot of attention: the gains made by a minor new party led by a right-wing populist who had played a significant role in pushing the United Kingdom towards Brexit.

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party, which campaigned on a eurosceptic, anti-immigration ticket and promised to “change politics forever”, won 14.3 percent of the vote and managed to send a handful of MPs to Westminster. Farage, who had tried and failed to make his way to the Commons many times before, also managed to enter the parliament for the first time in his political career as the MP for Clacton.

Brexit and its myriad adverse consequences played a significant part in neither the Tory nor the Labour campaign in 2024. The candidates from the two main parties hardly ever mentioned this crucial issue, which has defined British politics over the past decade, when presenting the voters with their vision for the future of the country.

In contrast, Reform UK, the successor to Farage’s previous anti-European Union United Kingdom Independence Party(UKIP), placed Brexit at the very centre of its election campaign. It said, if allowed to enter parliament, its MPs would work to deliver “total Brexit” – meaning cutting all remaining ties with European supranational institutions and erasing all EU legislation that is still part of the British system. Ignoring the fact that it was Brexit and the confusion and isolation that came with it that led to the UK losing significant influence and respect in the international arena in a matter of a few short years, Reform argued that only a complete rejection of the EU would allow Britain to become a global power once again.

This anti-EU promise, supported by a hotchpotch of other populist, anti-immigration pledges, clearly made an impact on the voters as the Reform UK won more than 4 million votes in the elections.

This left many asking, despite a Labour landslide, does Reform UK’s election success signal a far-right future for Britain?

Thankfully, it seems the power and influence of Farage’s populist, eurosceptic and xenophobic offering actually peaked in the 2024 elections.

Indeed, Reform UK’s electoral victory is a lame horse for two main reasons:

First, under the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system, which favours mainstream parties, any fringe, radical party like Reform is unlikely to ever gain enough seats in the Commons to become the main opposition, let alone form a government. Given that even the record 4 million votes it secured in the July 4 elections translated into just five seats in the Commons, there is reason to believe Reform UK will never be anything other than a fringe voice in the parliament. The system in the UK actively blocks the likes of Reform from becoming a threat to mainstream parties.

Second, given the threat from Farage, the Conservatives (worryingly) moved themselves much further to the right in the past few years. Their rhetoric and policy proposals on issues like Europe and immigration are almost indistinguishable from those of Reform and Europe’s far-right today. Once they manage to regroup and assume their new role as the main opposition in earnest, most probably under a new leader from the party’s right, the Conservatives will likely reclaim the support they lost to Farage and his party due to their many failures in government.

Farage appeals to the still committed Brexit voters who feel as if the main parties abandoned them as well as English nationalists nostalgic for Britain’s long lost imperial grandeur. Like many other far-right forces in Europe, Farage merges xenophobia, anti-immigrant sentiment and jingoism to suggest he can return the country to its days of glory and magically fix its problems, from lack of housing to the ever rising cost of living, by securing borders and deporting asylum seekers. He emphasises British exceptionalism, blames the influence of the EU for the country’s perceived decline and promotes isolationism as a solution.

Reform UK serves as the voice of narrow-minded English nationalism, combining a passionate rejection of multiculturalism with a deeply xenophobic brand of euroscepticism. Farage appeals to voters sick of the incompetence and arrogance of the political class, using a unique mix of national pride, historical myths and  patriotism. An ardent supporter of former United States President Donald Trump, he offers to make Britain “great” again.

And yet, the political realities and the anti-small-party electoral system already in place in Britain means that it can never come as close to power as, for example, Marine Le Pen did in France this year.

Farage and Reform UK’s success was an important story that emerged from Britain’s July 4 elections, and it showed that the nationalist far-right is indeed a force worthy of acknowledgement in the country. Nevertheless, Farage and his party do not have a path forward that could see them shape the future of Britain.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.