Euro 2024 seems unlikely to follow the pattern of Euro 2020. When Italy and England met in the last European Championship, it was that rarest of things: the two best teams in the tournament to that point actually both made it to the final to go head-to-head. This year, that already looks impossible.
That especially came home to us when compiling our power rankings of the remaining teams in the last 16 of the tournament. Spain and Germany were the obvious top two, but the field beyond that was very much of a muchness – and those two leading candidates were drawn such that they could face one another as early as the quarter-finals.
Why Germany Have Been The Best Team At Euro 2024 (So Far)
Is Euro 2024 turning into Euro 2004?
We’d be exaggerating if we said that tournament has been something of a footballing spring for some of the unfancied contenders. Switzerland have been slowly but steadily improving for the better part of 20 years, going from group stage fodder to consistent last 16ers to now two-time Euros quarter-finalists. Austria’s potential under Ralf Rangnick had not gone unnoticed by the stats bods in the build-up to the tournament.
Nor is it unusual for a dark horse or two to rear their heads and gallop into the latter stages of the tournament: witness Denmark in 1992 and 2021, the Czech Republic in 1996 and 2004, Greece in 2004, Turkey and Russia in 2008, Wales in 2016.
What has been unusual is just how thoroughly the bigger countries have carked the bed out in Germany.
Reigning champions Italy crashed out to Switzerland in the round of 16 after a poor showing at Euro 2024 (Image credit: Getty Images)
The last edition of the tournament was compelling from start to finish precisely because there were multiple contenders who dominated their groups and looked incredibly good doing it: Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands all took maximum points, England took seven of nine; France, Germany and Portugal had the excuse of all being drawn in the same group. The only true surprise was Spain finishing two points behind Sweden, who took seven points.
This year, only Germany and Spain made it to seven points – the fewest at a Euros since 2004, when there were only four groups rather than six. With no reprieve available for third-placed sides, Germany, Italy and Spain were all eliminated at the group stage.
We all know what happened then. Greece’s shock elimination of France in the quarter-finals guaranteed that at least one unfancied side would reach the final – the Czech Republic and Denmark were the other two sides on their side of the draw – while the two other best sides at the tournament, Portugal and England, were drawn against one another in the quarters. Greece, of course, went on to shock Europe by beating Portugal in the final.
Rank outsiders Greece lifted the Euro 2004 trophy (Image credit: Getty Images)
One half of all our Euro 2024 wall charts is now shaping up in similar fashion: should England make it past Slovakia in the round of 16 (and we’re absolutely not taking that for granted), the only remaining traditional big name potentially left on the path towards the final are the Netherlands, thanks to Switzerland’s victory over reigning champions Italy.
But of course, Italy’s elimination also makes one thing crystal clear to Gareth Southgate and his side: if they fail to improve, they will fall, regardless how much name value their squad carries.
Georgia have already beaten Portugal, Austria have seen off the Dutch, England themselves have been held by Slovenia. In a one-off game under increasing pressure, the difference between the so-called best and the rest is not as big as England might like to think. They found that out first hand in their humbling at Iceland’s hands in 2016.
But conversely…if England – or another of the big boys – can find their stride at this stage of the tournament, that could be enough for them to go all the way.
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