Iran’s succession question: Rouhani’s name resurfaces amid leadership void | Israel-Iran conflict
Rouhani’s Influence Resurfaces Amid Transition in Iran
As Iran navigates a sensitive transitional period following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a U.S.-Israeli strike, former President Hassan Rouhani’s name has reemerged in discussions about stabilizing the domestic political landscape and reshaping power dynamics within the Islamic Republic.
Rouhani, who served as president from 2013 to 2021, is no stranger to Iran’s political framework. A member of the clerical establishment with a doctorate in law, he has spent decades within the system he once aimed to reform. His political career began as a parliamentarian and included roles as a veteran of the national-security apparatus and chief nuclear negotiator.
A Political Journey Through Parliament
Born in 1948 in Sorkheh, in Semnan province, Rouhani received religious training in Iran’s Hawza system and went on to study law at the University of Tehran. He later earned a PhD from Glasgow Caledonian University in 1999. His political experience in the Majlis (Iran’s legislature) spanned five consecutive terms from 1980 to 2000, enabling him to build significant connections within the political elite.
This background has shaped Rouhani’s image as a consensus-driven leader, often perceived as more pragmatic than ideologically confrontational.
The Evolution of Post-Revolution Politics
To understand Rouhani’s political approach, it is essential to situate it within the broader context of post-revolutionary ideologies in Iran. His tenure coincided with a series of ideological movements ranging from “Islamic left” and “Islamic liberalism” to more populist trends under former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. During this time, Rouhani introduced the concept of e’tedal, or “moderation,” which sought to balance the pillars of the Iranian system—pragmatism and clerical authority.
Rouhani campaigned on promises to alleviate external pressures, boost economic growth, and reduce domestic polarization, all while respecting the authority structure governing elected officials in Iran.
Diplomatic Achievements and Challenges
From 2003 to 2005, Rouhani led Iranian nuclear negotiations with the European Union, garnering a reputation as a pragmatic negotiator. His experience became a cornerstone of his 2013 presidential campaign, leading to his election with over 50% of the vote in a high-turnout election.
Rouhani’s signature achievement was the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which lifted sanctions on Iran in exchange for caps on its nuclear program. He promoted the agreement as a means to stabilize Iran’s economy and reduce inflation.
Second Term and a Shift in Power Dynamics
Rouhani won a second term in 2017, receiving approximately 57% of the vote. This was widely interpreted as a public endorsement for continued diplomatic engagement. However, the political landscape remained unchanged, as the presidency does not wield control over key security and judicial bodies.
The diplomatic outlook shifted dramatically in 2018 when President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the JCPOA, leading to the reimposition of sanctions and undermining Rouhani’s economic promises. This development further empowered hardliners who argued that negotiations had failed to produce lasting benefits.
Political Marginalization and Possible Return
After concluding his term in 2021, Rouhani became increasingly marginalized within a conservative-dominated political scene, although he secured a position on Iran’s Assembly of Experts, responsible for selecting the future supreme leader.
Recent reports indicated that interest surrounds Rouhani’s potential re-involvement in politics, especially following Khamenei’s death on February 28, 2024. During this interim phase, a leadership council manages the country until a new leader is chosen.
Analysts note that Rouhani’s possible return reflects a governing style focused on compromise and economic management, suggesting he embodies a path to resilience for a political establishment grappling with its future direction.
As Iran approaches its next leadership decision, the central question remains whether it will pursue broader legitimacy through pragmatic leadership or maintain a security-oriented posture. Rouhani stands at this crossroads as a seasoned political figure whose past actions may still resonate within the corridors of power.
