Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Odds, trends, picks for Rams-Buccaneers

The Buccaneers (7-Three) host the Rams (6-Three) in an NFC showdown at Raymond James Stadium on Monday Evening Soccer to shut out Week 11. The Bucs are -Four.5 favorites (-220 ML), and the over/beneath has been set at 48.

Each these groups have suffered from a number of personalities this season. Quarterback Tom Brady and Buccaneers have manhandled a number of successful groups, together with the Packers, Panthers, and Raiders, however they received outscored 20-19 by the offensively-inept Bears in Week 5 and have been swept by the Saints by a mixed rating of 72-26. In the meantime, Jared Goff and the Rams have taken care of enterprise many of the season, coming inside 4 factors in Buffalo to a 5-Zero begin and beating the division-rival Seahawks just a few weeks in the past, but they’ve faltered in opposition to the injury-ravaged 49ers and upstart Dolphins.

Who will prevail on this all-important NFC conflict of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde groups? BetQL has knowledgeable evaluation, prime developments, up-to-the-minute line actions, and full recreation previews for this and each recreation of the NFL season. Our NFL Greatest Guess Mannequin runs simulations for every recreation, arriving at detailed end result projections and finest bets. We are able to let you know proper now that the Mannequin likes the ultimate rating to equal UNDER 48 factors, projecting the entire at nearer to 47 factors. Hold studying for the Mannequin’s full projections, in addition to a complete recreation outlook and record of prime betting predictions.

MORE MNF: FD Single-game lineup | DK Showdown lineup

Rams-Buccaneers Betting Preview

Rams Outlook

The Rams proceed to be an upper-echelon crew within the NFC, thanks largely to its dominant protection. Coming into Week 11, LA had surrendered the second-fewest factors (168), the second-fewest complete yards (2,668), and the third-fewest first downs (167). The Rams rank first in fewest passing touchdowns allowed (9) and common factors allowed per defensive possession (1.51). They sit within the prime 10 in each passing yards allowed and dashing yards allowed.

Perennial All-Professional Aaron Donald, doubtless a prime contender for Defensive Participant of the Yr as soon as once more, has unsurprisingly led the cost with an NFC-leading 9 sacks. LA has a complete of 31 QB takedowns, only one behind Tampa Bay. Micah Kiser serves because the main tackler of the linebacking unit, and safeties John Johnson and Taylor Rapp, in addition to the terrific trio of cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey, Troy Hill, and Darious Williams (the latter of which has 4 picks) comprise the Rams’ elite secondary.

Defensive coordinator Brandon Staley’s unit could have its palms full with the Buccaneers’ huge array of offensive weapons, particularly out extensive in opposition to receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, and tight finish Rob Gronkowski. Donald and his comrades should dominate the road of scrimmage like they did of their large 23-16 win over Seattle in Week 10. The Rams took down Seahawks QB Russell Wilson six occasions for 28 complete sack yards, and their fixed presence within the pocket stored Wilson from throwing a landing for the primary time all 12 months. L.A. additionally picked off the MVP contender twice whereas holding him to a season-low 57.Zero QB ranking. Seattle receivers Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, two of the main receivers on the season, have been restricted to 99 complete yards on seven catches. Brady will undergo the same destiny if the Bucs can not comprise LA on the line of assault, as Tampa has misplaced all three video games wherein Brady has been sacked 3 times.

There’s no denying L.A. has an elite defensive unit, however similar to the Buccaneers, the Rams can solely go so far as their quarterback takes them. Jared Goff has had a greater marketing campaign than his post-Tremendous Bowl-loss hangover season final 12 months, however he’s nowhere close to the place coach Sean McVay wants him to be. With Darrell Henderson Jr. now main the backfield Todd Gurley used to dominate, and Brandin Cooks making performs in Houston now, it’s on Goff to drive this offense.

He has a wholesome group of receiving choices to work with, and Henderson and Malcolm Brown have helped LA rating 14 dashing TDs (tied for second within the NFL). However Goff has been mediocre within the purple zone. The Rams solely rating a landing 62.9 p.c of the time they attain their opponents’ 20-yard line, rating 16th within the league.

Goff must belief his veteran receivers extra. Cooper Kupp, who leads L.A. with 53 catches and 577 receptions, solely has two touchdowns. Robert Woods, who has caught 70 p.c of his passes and scored 4 occasions, solely has 60 targets in 9 begins. Josh Reynolds and rookie Van Jefferson flash at occasions after which disappear once more. Tight ends Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett appear like dominant red-zone threats in a single recreation, then fade into obscurity the following.

LA has constructed a roster round Goff that may simply go all the best way so long as he places the items collectively and confidently executes. That fact was greater than obvious within the Rams’ upset of the division-leading Seahawks and their domination of the Bears 24-10 two video games prior. However then there’s the Nov. 1 hiccup in Miami and the mid-October catastrophe in San Francisco in opposition to the injury-plagued 49ers. 

Nice groups with nice quarterbacks don’t undergo such unhealthy losses. So, similar to in Tampa, the query posed by many Rams followers should be: “Is my QB able to being nice sufficient for a protracted sufficient stretch to win my crew a Tremendous Bowl?”

Buccaneers Outlook

The Bucs are constructed fairly equally to the Rams. They’ve a improbable protection beneath coordinator Todd Bowles, a good one-two backfield punch of Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette, and a receiving arsenal with as many weapons as any crew in soccer. The items are in place to win in opposition to anybody so long as three-time MVP and first-year Buc Tom Brady performs successful soccer.

Brady has regarded horrendous in each of Tampa’s conferences with the Saints. And he actually forgot what number of downs he had on the finish of a tricky 20-19 loss to the offensively challenged Bears in Week 5, leading to a game-icing turnover on downs. He was the central issue of the Bucs’ three losses, simply as he has been the primary catalyst of their seven wins.

That will appear overstated or it might seem like an oversimplification, however the numbers again it up. In Tampa’s three losses, Brady mixed to throw three complete touchdowns and 5 interceptions whereas averaging 233.6 passing yards and a 68.5 QB ranking. In its seven wins, he has thrown 20 touchdowns and two interceptions, averaging 291.1 passing yards and a 110.7 QB ranking. He’s additionally been sacked 3 times in every of the Bucs’ three losses and solely 5 occasions complete throughout their seven wins.

Not surprisingly, super-talented massive man Mike Evans leads all Buccaneers’ receivers in catches (40), yards (514), and touchdowns (eight). When Chris Godwin (finger) has seen the sphere, he has caught 82.9 p.c of his 41 targets, good for 412 yards and two scores. Scotty Miller has performed the a part of Brady’s trusty slot-man. And tight finish Rob Gronkowski, Brady’s longtime pal and teammate throughout three of Brady’s six Tremendous Bowl wins, has shaken off his retirement rust, scoring in 4 of his previous 5 video games.

Maybe most horrifying to the remainder of the NFL, Antonio Brown began to look extra snug with the offense final week. Brady related with the four-time All-Professional receiver on seven-of-eight targets for 69 complete yards within the Bucs’ 46-23 drubbing of the Panthers in Carolina. Getting into the weekend, Tampa ranked fifth in passing touchdowns (23), sixth in factors (296), and ninth in passing yards (2,646, or 264.6 per recreation).

As for the working recreation, which appears interchangeable based mostly on coach Bruce Arians’ temper, Ronald Jones might need lastly supplanted Leonard Fournette because the Bucs’ bell-cow again. The third-year USC product rushed for 192 yards in Tampa’s dominant 46-23 win over Carolina final week, highlighted by a 98-yard TD (the longest run within the NFL this season). Jones has 730 dashing yards and 5 TDs, whereas Fournette has 396 scrimmage yards because the pass-catcher and change-of-pace again (he has caught 80 p.c of Brady’s appears).

When Brady and his boys get out to a lead, their protection normally preserves it. Coming into Week 11, the Buccaneers ranked first in dashing yards allowed (1,039, 103.9 per recreation) and third in complete yards allowed (Three,003, 300.Three per recreation). They’ve the second-most takeaways within the league with 17 (12 picks, 5 fumbles recovered).

Just like the Rams, the Bucs are what you may name plentiful in any respect three ranges. Edge rushers Jason Pierre-Paul, Ndamukong Suh and William Gholston have mixed for 13.5 sacks and 36 QB hits. Elite linebackers Devin White, Shaquil Barrett, and Lavonte David have mixed for 201 tackles and 11.5 sacks, and Tampa’s younger however stable secondary options breakout rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. and third-year stud Carlton Davis, the latter of whom leads the NFC in picks (4) and passes defensed (14).

Tampa Bay could have an opportunity to get well its popularity among the many nationwide viewers this night. Brady and the Bucs fell onerous 38-Three in opposition to the Saints in Sunday Evening Soccer two weeks in the past and barely outscored the woeful Giants 25-23 six days earlier on Monday Evening Soccer. Additionally they misplaced their solely Thursday Evening Soccer matchup 20-19 to the Bears in Week 5 when Brady mistook fourth down for third down throughout his tried game-winning drive. Tampa is 5-5 in opposition to the unfold this season (2-2 at house), and Four-Four ATS as a favourite (1-2 as a house favourite).

Prediction

We just like the Rams to remain on this recreation proper till the top, with the BetQL Greatest Guess Mannequin placing a three-star ranking on LA protecting the +Four.5. The Mannequin factors out that the Rams are 14-5 in opposition to convention opponents over the previous two years, and the Bucs haven’t been spectacular in opposition to the unfold this season. The Mannequin additionally likes the Rams to cowl +Three at halftime (however it solely lists that wager with a one-star ranking).

Nonetheless, we’re going with the Buccaneers at house on the moneyline -220. Take into account the UNDER, too—these are two of the stingiest defenses within the NFL, so there’s a low likelihood this one flirts with 50 complete factors like 51 p.c of sharp cash suggests. It’s additionally value noting that L.A. has not but introduced who will even be kicking its area targets this night, with Matt Homosexual and Austin MacGinnis battling to exchange the injured Kai Forbath. Give us Tampa Bay by a game-winning Ryan Succup area objective, 25-22.

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