If you’re still in the running in your NFL pick ’em pools and survivor pools, then congratulations. The past few weeks have been crazy, even by NFL standards, and chances are things aren’t going to get any easier. Fortunately, the experts from TeamRankings are here with some strategy advice and tips for your Week 11 NFL picks.
Picks that are being underrated by the public can yield weekly gains that make the difference between winning and losing a season-long NFL pool, while smart upset picks can drive success in weekly pools. TeamRankings is the only site that provides customized picks that maximize your edge in NFL pick ’em pools. Check out TeamRankings’ Football Pick ’em Picks, NFL Survivor Picks, and NFL Betting Picks. For a limited time, you can also get a free three-day trial of all their premium football picks.
Week 11 NFL Pick ’em Pool Picks: Tips, strategy
How We Identify NFL Week 11 Value Picks
This article is written on Wednesday, but if the win odds and pick popularity numbers hold, the teams below all provide compelling risk-vs.-reward trade-offs to differentiate your Week 11 picks from your pool opponents.
It’s important to note that we’re not necessarily saying you should make all of these picks. In particular, some upset picks may be unnecessarily risky for your pool, even if they are technically undervalued. You need to take an overall level of risk with your picks that’s appropriate for your pool size and rules. Season-long pools typically call for more conservative picks than single-week pools. If you want our game-by-game pick recommendations for all of your specific pools, use our Football Pick ’em Picks product.
Note: Win odds and estimated pick popularity data below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
Point Spread: +2.5
Pick Popularity: 29%
Category: Value Gamble in Weekly Contests
For most of the past two years, the Seahawks have been somewhat overvalued in pick ’em pools, leading us to make some value picks against them. However, the tide has turned with Seattle’s recent struggles. Russell Wilson was bad in his first game back from his finger injury, completing just 50 percent of his passes, averaging four yards per pass, and throwing two costly red-zone interceptions. Seattle was shut out for the first time ever with Wilson starting.
That widely televised poor performance means some value on a mild upset this week. Wilson should be better another week removed from his return.
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles
Point Spread: +1.0
Pick Popularity: 43%
Category: Unpopular Toss-up
The Saints-Eagles matchup is one of the closest of the week. We had both as value plays last week, and the Eagles came through with the road win while the Saints came up just short. However, the Saints were impacted by a bad roughing-the-passer call that took away a red-zone interception and allowed the Titans to score a key touchdown.
This week, the public is unsurprisingly favoring the team coming off a win, but our models give a slight lean to the Saints. They have one of the NFL’s best rushing defenses and get to face a team built around running the ball.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers
Point Spread: +2.0
Pick Popularity: 21%
Category: Value Gamble in Weekly Contests
We’ll stay on the Vikings after they were a value play on the road against the Chargers last week. They’re a little better than their record, as they have several close, late losses. Our season predictive ratings have Green Bay as +2.7 points better on a neutral field, but this one is in Minnesota. The difference in perception between these two teams is largely driven by close-game performances, as the Packers are 3-1 in close games and Minnesota is 3-5.
In weekly contests, taking the relatively unpopular Vikings in this rivalry game is a value play.
Cleveland Browns vs. Detroit Lions
Point Spread: -11.5
Pick Popularity: 94%
Category: Large Favorite at a Reasonable Price
Cleveland is one of three double-digit favorites this week. But whereas 94 percent of the public is picking the Browns, 99 percent is taking the Titans against the Texans. While upset picks are rare for either game, an entry is six times more likely to take a chance on the Lions against the Browns, likely due to recency bias.
If you’re in a confidence-point pool, it might make sense to have the Browns as one of your top point plays. There may be enough skepticism following last week’s blowout loss to push them down for lots of confidence-point entries. Add in that Jared Goff is not guaranteed to start this game, and the line has moved in the Browns’ favor, making Cleveland a value play despite its high win odds.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Dallas Cowboys
Point Spread: -2.5
Pick Popularity: 56%
Category: Value Favorite
We were on Kansas City as a value play last week and are back again this week again. The Chiefs are a small favorite, but the public is pretty evenly split.
Sticking with the favored Chiefs is the move in both weekly and seasonal pools if the public is going to be relatively divided on this one.
Week 11 NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Most popular picks
Here are the most popular survivor picks for Week 11:
- Tennessee Titans (48% popularity) vs. Houston Texans
- Cleveland Browns (22) vs. Detroit Lions
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9) vs. New York Giants
- Los Angeles Chargers (6) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- San Francisco 49ers (4) at Jacksonville Jaguars
You can check out our Week 11 pick analysis and get our customized pick recommendations if you are still competing in a survivor pool.
Get All Our Week 11 NFL Picks
Football Pick ’em Picks from TeamRankings is the only product that gives you the picks, tools, and analysis you need to maximize your edge in NFL pick ’em pools. It uses algorithms to identify the calculated risks that give you the best chance to win your straight-up, point spread, or confidence pool.
From a strategy perspective, game theory is a foundational aspect of winning pick ’em pools. In short, to win a pick ’em pool, you have to score points that your opponents miss. That means you need to identify unpopular picks that are worth a calculated gamble and avoid trendy upset picks not worth the risk. Our product does all that number crunching for you, 71 percent of our subscribers report winning a prize in football picks contests.
If you want to learn more about football pick ’em pool strategy, you can also check out our free articles about strategy for winning football pick ’em pools.
Good luck in your pools this week!