Nigeria’s oil output drops 6.3% to 1.627m bpd
Nigeria’s Oil Production Declines Amid Falling Prices
By Udeme Akpan, Energy Editor
Nigeria’s oil production has experienced a significant decline, falling short of both budgetary and OPEC targets, despite prices remaining above the government’s financial benchmark.
According to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), total oil production, which includes condensate, decreased by 6.3% year-on-year to 1.627 million barrels per day (bpd) in January 2026, down from 1.737 million bpd in January 2025. The production figures also reflect a month-on-month decline of 5.4%, dropping from 1.544 million bpd in December 2025.
The NUPRC’s latest National Liquid Hydrocarbon Production Report indicated that combined crude oil and condensate production ranged from a low of 1.59 million bpd to a peak of 1.82 million bpd during the month, with average crude oil production not meeting expectations.
This performance falls short of Nigeria’s 2026 budget benchmark of 1.84 million bpd, which is based on an oil price of $64.85 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar.
Concurrently, global oil prices have decreased, now hovering around $67 per barrel, down from nearly $70 per barrel in recent weeks, reflecting ongoing volatility in the international market.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reported a similar trend, stating that Nigeria’s crude oil production, excluding condensate, fell by 5% year-on-year to 1.459 million bpd in January 2026, compared to 1.539 million bpd in January 2025. OPEC, which does not include condensate in its crude oil production numbers, derived this data from direct communication with its member countries.
The report further highlighted that Nigeria did not meet its OPEC production quota of 1.5 million bpd for the review period. Presently, NUPRC indicates that Nigeria produces approximately 196,028 bpd of condensate.
