Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below…
Andrew has six selections at Wolverhampton, Pontefract, Brighton and Ffos Las on a very busy Tuesday (July 5th). Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
BROXI (system – Kodi Bear, Wolverhampton)
Progeny of the sire Kodi Bear have a 16 from 70 record on the Tapeta at Wolverhampton (23% strike-rate) for a profit of £75.48 to a £1 level stake at SP. BROXI could have been better drawn but his ten all-weather runs have all come on Polytrack and he could surprise now switched to Tapeta for the first time.
ROSEMARY AND THYME (system – Pipalong Stakes, 4yos, fourth or worse last time out)
Since 2014, had we simply bet every four-year-old running in the Listed Pipalong Stakes at Pontefract we’d have made a profit of £57.00 and hit the winner in seven of the eight renewals. Only two qualify this year – Let’s and ROSEMARY AND THYME. The last-named, the bigger price of the pair, isn’t the easiest to win with but will appreciate the smaller field after 13th of 20 in the Kensington Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot and might benefit from the application of cheekpieces.
HURTLE (system – Paul & Oliver Cole, first-time blinkers)
The Cole yard does well with first-time blinkered runners, scoring with 15 of the 81 qualifiers since the beginning of 2012 for profit of £61.90. HURTLE caught the eye against the pace/draw bias when fifth at Leicester on his debut last month and was always trapped wide when beating only one home at Kempton next time.
FFOS LAS 6.20
GERALT OF RIVIA (system – Ffos Las sprints, low draw)
The majority of Ffos Las sprint winners challenge wide, more towards the centre of the track. This favours low draws and, since the start of 2019, had we simply bet all runners over 5f-6f drawn in stall 4 or lower we’d have won 18 of our 95 bets and made a profit of £10.01 to a £1 level stake at SP. GERALT OF RIVIA was only tenth of 14 at Newbury on his debut but blew the start and lost a shoe in a race that strongly favoured those who were up with the pace.
FFOS LAS 6.50
CONQUERING (system – William Muir, first-time cheekpieces)
The yard of William Muir (now William Muir & Chris Grassick) has a good record when using first-time cheekpieces, scoring with nine of the 59 qualifiers since 2013 for a profit of £51.50 to the usual £1 stake. Those who ran poorly last time (defined as finishing sixth or worse) won six of their 32 starts for a profit of £60.25. CONQUERING finished well held when 150-1 at Chepstow last time but that was his third run for a mark, and he can improve now going handicapping for the first time.
IDEAL GUEST (system – raced freely when winning last time out)
Since the spring of 2016, horses described as ‘raced freely’ when winning last time out have a 29 from 96 record (30.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £37.32 to a £1 level stake at SP. IDEAL GUEST won well from the front over course and distance last time, despite failing to settle, and can follow up.
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