Stock market gains N6.7trn in January amid oil price surge
The Nigerian stock market experienced notable growth at the start of 2026, closing January with over N6.7 trillion in capital gains. This uptick coincided with a surge in oil prices, reaching approximately $71.01 per barrel, which analysts argue could be beneficial for Nigeria’s economy if sustained. The rise in crude oil prices is expected to reinforce fiscal revenue expectations and uplift investor confidence in energy-related equities, creating a ripple effect of positive sentiment across the broader market. However, the potential for higher pump prices could negatively impact consumers, particularly low-income earners, affecting their purchasing power.
The Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) reported encouraging monthly performance figures. The market capitalization rose significantly, increasing to N106.153 trillion from December 2025’s total of N99.376 trillion, reflecting an addition of N6.77 trillion. Additionally, the NGX All Share Index (ASI) showed a notable rise of 6.3%, reaching 165,370.50 points, up from 155,613.03 points at the end of December 2025. Analysts attributed this performance to investor optimism surrounding improved earnings for companies anticipated in the full year of 2025. This led to increased investments in fundamentally strong stocks.
In terms of week-to-week performance, the NGX ended negatively due to profit-taking by investors. For instance, the shares of MTN declined by 1.4%, First Holdco lost 8.2%, and Dangote Sugar fell by 2.4%. Despite some individual stock gains—Sky Aviation rose by 28.7% while ABBEYBDS and NAHCO increased by 32.4% and 9.1% respectively—the overall ASI dipped by 0.1% week-on-week, settling at 165,370.40 points, thereby moderating year-to-date returns to +6.3%.
Market activity showed a slight decline as trading volume and value fell by 1.0% and 4.2% week-on-week, respectively. Sector performance was mixed; the Insurance Index grew by 0.8%, the Consumer Goods Index by 0.7%, the Industrial Goods Index by 0.1%, and the Oil and Gas Index by 0.1%, while the Banking Index was the only decline at -0.6%.
Looking ahead, analysts from Cordros Capital foresee continued volatility in the market as investors analyze remaining earnings reports from 2025, which will likely influence short-term sentiments. Observations from InvestData Consulting Limited highlight the significant role of rising oil prices as a positive external factor for the market. Brent crude futures climbed 3.8% to $71.01 per barrel, reaching a near six-month high, sparked by increased geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning Iran’s nuclear activities and potential U.S. military actions. This situation heightened risk premiums on oil, fostering gains in commodity-linked equities.
Overall, market activity remains focused on select high-performing mid-cap stocks and energy-linked equities as both institutional and retail investors exercise cautious optimism. The interplay of oil prices and stock performance suggests a complex outlook for Nigeria’s financial markets, with both opportunities and challenges ahead.
