Strategic oil release may calm markets but cannot fix Hormuz disruption | Conflict News
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Plummets Amid Rising Tensions
Hundreds of oil tankers are currently anchored on both sides of the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran has effectively closed the vital waterway. This disruption has pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel, reaching levels not seen since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022.
Oil traffic through the strait, which handles approximately one-fifth of global oil supplies, has significantly declined following military actions by Israel and the United States against Tehran on February 28. Many Asian nations, including India, China, and Japan, along with several European countries, rely heavily on energy imports from the Gulf. Interruptions in supply could have serious implications for the global economy.
In response to the crisis, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced its decision to release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves—the largest coordinated drawdown in its history. However, this action has not yet succeeded in reducing oil prices, which concluded trading on Friday at $103.14 per barrel.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the IEA had previously released approximately 182 million barrels to stabilize prices. Currently, shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have dropped to less than 10% of pre-war levels, raising concerns about the integrity of a key artery in the global energy system. The agency’s member nations collectively hold about 1.25 billion barrels in government-controlled emergency reserves, supplemented by around 600 million barrels held by industries under government obligations.
Despite the large volume of reserves, experts caution that it is insufficient to address the scale of global energy demand. Energy strategist Naif Aldandeni described the coordinated release as merely “a small bandage on a large wound,” emphasizing that while it may temporarily ease market tensions, it does not resolve the fundamental issue of disrupted shipments through the Strait.
Current estimates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) suggest that global consumption of petroleum and other liquids is expected to average 105.17 million barrels per day by 2026. In terms of demand, the released 400 million barrels would only cover approximately four days of global consumption.
Aldandeni noted that while emergency reserves can mitigate panic in markets, they cannot substitute for the uninterrupted function of shipping routes.
The surge in oil prices can partially be attributed to fears surrounding geopolitical instability. According to oil expert Nabil al-Marsoumi, the closure of the strait has added around $40 per barrel as a geopolitical risk premium to prices, indicating that the turmoil extends beyond mere supply issues.
In light of these concerns, U.S. President Donald Trump recently announced significant military actions in Iran, emphasizing the U.S. intent to protect its interests in the region. These developments have prompted Iranian officials to warn of potential retaliatory strikes on energy facilities linked to the U.S. if their infrastructure is threatened.
Kharg Island, Iran’s primary crude oil export terminal, plays a crucial role in the country’s oil supply. Attacks that target such infrastructure could escalate the situation from disruptions in shipping to direct reductions in production and export capacity.
The shutdown of production facilities by major oil companies, including QatarEnergy and Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, further complicates the scenario. In addition, both Saudi Aramco and the UAE’s ADNOC have ceased refinery operations amid the escalating crisis.
Even under a scenario where maritime disruptions continue without direct infrastructure damage, the efficacy of strategic reserves is limited by logistical constraints. The U.S. Department of Energy reported that as of February 18, 2026, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds 415.4 million barrels, with a maximum drawdown capacity of 4.4 million barrels per day. It takes approximately 13 days for oil released from the reserve to reach U.S. markets, underscoring the delays involved in any emergency response.
Given the current situation, energy experts warn that any stabilization from the release of reserves is likely to be short-lived, particularly if threats to the Strait of Hormuz persist or extend to other critical maritime corridors.
