UK inflation rises further ahead of Bank of England rates decision

UK inflation climbed to 2.6% in November, up from 2.3% in October, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). 

The rise matches market expectations and comes as the Bank of England prepares for its upcoming decision on interest rates later this week.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, also increased to 3.5% from 3.3% in October. However, this was slightly below the anticipated figure of 3.6%. Services inflation, closely watched by the Bank of England for signs of domestic price pressures, remained steady at 5%, slightly below market expectations of 5.1%.

Earlier this year, falling inflation allowed the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to lower interest rates in August and November. The headline rate dropped to 1.7% in September but has since been pushed higher by rising energy costs and persistent services inflation.

Despite the recent uptick, the Bank of England is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold at its meeting this week. Markets remain divided on whether a rate cut will come at the February meeting.

Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, highlighted the challenges ahead. “While risks to this base case are tilted towards a more dovish outcome, given increasing signs of overall economic momentum stalling, policymakers will be rapidly seeking convincing signs of disinflationary progress being made, as the economic cocktail facing UK Plc. increasingly becomes a stagflationary one,” he said.

The inflation figures follow Tuesday’s data showing stronger-than-expected wage growth. Average earnings, including bonuses, rose by 5.2%, exceeding the 4.6% forecast and October’s figure of 4.4%.

Chancellor to the Exchequer Rachel Reeves acknowledged the ongoing struggles faced by households. “I know families are still struggling with the cost of living and today’s figures are a reminder that for too long the economy has not worked for working people,” she said.

Reeves outlined recent measures aimed at supporting workers, including no increases to national insurance, income tax, or VAT, as well as boosting the national living wage by £1,400 and freezing fuel duty. “Since we arrived, real wages have grown at their fastest in three years. That’s an extra £20 a week after inflation. But I know there is more to do. I want working people to be better off, which is what our Plan for Change will deliver,” she added.

Inflation is expected to rise further in the coming year as the UK continues to take a more gradual approach to easing monetary policy compared to other developed central banks.