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If we travel back in time to November 2022, Ivan Toney was one of the hottest prospects in the Premier League.
Surprisingly omitted from England’s World Cup squad, Toney showed Gareth Southgate what he was missing by delivering a match-winning two-goal performance as Brentford stunned champions Manchester City at the Etihad.
Deployed as a loan striker, he bullied the City defence all afternoon, with smart back-to-goal play enabling Brentford to launch quick counter attacks and break through the high line. At that point a move to a top six team seemed almost inevitable.
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Over 18 months on from that performance in Manchester, Toney remains with Brentford as he enters the final year of his contract.
The Bees have stabilised as a Premier League club during that time, but it is surprising that Toney has not taken the step to the next level.
Of course a big part of this was down to off-the-field events. In May 2023, Toney was found guilty of 232 breaches of the Football Association’s betting rules and banned for eight months.
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But since January, he has been fit and available for Brentford as well as managing to get himself back in the England picture, earning a place on the plane to Euro 2024.
Although restricted to late substitute appearances in Germany, Toney still made a huge impact. First, he assisted Harry Kane’s vital winner against Slovakia in the last 16, then, in the next round against Switzerland, he showed why he remains one of the best penalty takers in the game, scoring the crucial fourth kick of a memorable shootout victory.
So, after putting himself back in the shop window why has no-one come in for him?
The issues with signing England international
Price tag remains a big issue. In an era of PSR, even Premier League sides with the biggest budgets need to ensure they are getting value for every penny spent.
Toney is now 28 years old, potentially approaching his final ‘peak’ seasons and is expected to cost any potential buyer at least £50million, possibly as much as £65million. Considering he may well be available on a free transfer in only 12 months, most clubs won’t be inclined to part with a huge sum.
While Brentford may well be resigned to losing Toney in the long-run, they have also shown they are in no rush to sell him at a knock-down price.
The Bees’ record signing Igor Thiago is seen as the long-term replacement for the England international, although he suffered an injury during a pre-season clash with Wimbledon and is out of action until later this year. This could mean Toney stays at the Gtech Community Stadium, until the new year at least.
Perhaps the bigger issue is stylistic.
Toney thrives in teams that sit in a low-block and look to hit the opposition on the counterattack. His physicality, agility and aerial prowess make him one of the best target men in the division, arguably in Europe.
This works perfectly at Brentford who want to compact the pitch, less so at teams that want to play high up and dominate possession.
With that in mind it is hard to see Toney fitting in with the tactical approaches of Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal. Manchester United could be a more realistic option, giving the chaotic nature of their approach last season which may well suit a target man.
But Erik ten Hag will surely want to see at least an attempt to control possession going forward, and given that they invested close to £64million in Rasmus Hojlund only last summer, a move to Old Trafford feels unlikely.
Chelsea and Tottenham’s managers both demand high levels of work off-the-ball from their central strikers, which would require Toney to refine his game. At 28, not an easy thing to do.
A return to Newcastle wouldn’t be possible whilst Alexander Isak remains at St James Park, while a switch to Champions League bound Aston Villa would only present a battle for starts with England colleague Ollie Watkins.
Verdict on where Toney may end up
Toney has previously spoken publicly about moving from Brentford to a “top club, competing for trophies.”
But as things stand none of those clubs, at least in England, would be likely to part with the £50million plus required to sign him. At the majority of these sides, he would not be an automatic starter and for a 28-year-old this would be a far from ideal scenario.
Toney will still likely leave Brentford one way or another within the next year. But don’t expect him to automatically join a Premier League title challenger. A move away from England may prove the best bet for Toney to secure the trophies he craves.
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