Will Hezbollah continue to avoid responding to Israel’s attacks on Lebanon? | Israel attacks Lebanon News
Hezbollah’s Limited Response to Israeli Aggression Since Ceasefire
Beirut, Lebanon — In the 14 months since the ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel was established, Hezbollah has launched only one attack, despite what has been reported as over 11,000 Israeli violations of the agreement. Ongoing Israeli military actions have led to significant destruction in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, displacing approximately 64,000 people.
Following the 2024 conflict—during which many of its military leaders, including long-time chief Hassan Nasrallah, were killed—Hezbollah remains weakened and has not been positioned to retaliate effectively, according to analysts. However, some experts suggest that the group has not entirely ruled out a counter-response, especially amid increasing pressure to disarm.
Qassem Kassir, a journalist closely associated with Hezbollah, commented, “No one can predict when Hezbollah will respond. Such actions are contingent on escalating Israeli aggression and opportunities that may arise, particularly if diplomatic efforts falter.”
Ceasefire Terms and Ongoing Conflict
The ceasefire, brokered on November 27, 2024, mandated both Hezbollah and Israel to halt hostilities. Hezbollah was to withdraw its forces below the Litani River, while Israel would pull back from its northern neighbor. Nevertheless, Israel continues to carry out attacks on Lebanon and maintains control at five strategic locations in the south. Key issues for Hezbollah and the Lebanese government also include the fate of Lebanese prisoners held in Israeli jails and hindrances to reconstruction efforts, which have been obstructed by repeated Israeli strikes on construction sites.
Since the ceasefire began, Hezbollah has executed only one strike against Israel—this occurred in December 2024 when the group fired at an Israeli military position in response to ongoing assaults. While there were no casualties in that incident, Israel retaliated with air strikes that resulted in the deaths of 11 individuals in Lebanon.
In the months that followed, Israeli actions have reportedly led to over 330 deaths in Lebanon, including at least 127 civilians, alongside the loss of a prominent Hezbollah commander, Haytham Ali Tabatabai.
Kassir noted that Hezbollah’s commitment to the ceasefire is aimed at allowing the Lebanese state, government, and military the opportunity to fulfill their obligations. “It wants to take the time to rebuild and enable people to return to their villages and homes,” he said.
Weakened Deterrent and Future Prospects
Historically, Hezbollah’s military capabilities served as a deterrent to Israeli actions; however, analysts indicate that this deterrent has diminished significantly since the recent war. According to Karim Emile Bitar, a Lebanese political analyst, any retaliation by Hezbollah could provoke severe Israeli military action and a resurgence of violence that previously displaced over 1.2 million people.
“Hezbollah is simply in no position today to respond to Israel,” Bitar stated. “Any military action would be ineffective and could ignite intense political backlash domestically.”
Imad Salamey, a political scientist at the Lebanese American University, emphasized that recent advancements in Israeli intelligence and military technology have altered the dynamics of engagement against Hezbollah.
Some analysts suggest that a significant shift—such as an attack on Iran, Hezbollah’s chief ally—could compel the group to act. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem, in a recent televised address, expressed a commitment to self-defense while stressing that timing and strategy would be carefully considered.
Iran’s Influence on Hezbollah’s Strategy
The fate of the Iranian regime is viewed by some Hezbollah members as existential. Should Iran face a direct threat, it might compel Hezbollah into a more aggressive posture against Israel, according to Bitar. Salamey added that only a dramatic external shock, such as a regional war featuring Iran, would likely draw Hezbollah into more direct involvement.
Under current circumstances, any potential response from Hezbollah is anticipated to be measured and focused more on maintaining its relevance than on precipitating widespread conflict. The group, as analysts conclude, lacks the necessary strategic confidence, logistical capacity, and political backing required for extensive military escalation.
