Uncertainty persists in 2026, diversify now — Comercio Partners urges investors
Comercio Partners Urges Investors to Prioritize Diversification Amid Continued Uncertainty
By Babajide Komolafe
Comercio Partners is advising both retail and institutional investors to focus on diversification in 2026, as persistent domestic and global uncertainties could increase market volatility. This caution comes on the heels of Nigeria entering another pre-election cycle.
The financial services firm outlined its concerns in a 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook report. Although it predicts moderating inflation, gradual monetary easing, and steady economic growth, Comercio Partners warns that significant risks remain.
The report highlights that while macroeconomic stability has improved since the turbulence of 2024, the investment landscape continues to be fragile. “We are still operating in a world of uncertainty,” the firm stated. “Neither analysts nor policymakers can predict with certainty what will happen in the next few months. Diversification remains the most important strategy for investors in 2026.”
The firm’s analysis shows that Nigeria’s inflation rate, which soared above 30 percent during the peak of economic reforms, is now on a declining trajectory. It estimates that inflation could fall to between 10 and 11 percent in an ideal scenario in the first half of 2026, with a base case estimate of around 16 percent. In a pessimistic scenario influenced by oil price fluctuations, insecurity, or misaligned policies, inflation could rise to between 18 and 22 percent.
On economic growth, Comercio Partners anticipates an expansion of 4.5 percent in its base case, with possible growth of up to 5 percent if factors such as oil production and agricultural output improve. However, it cautions that pre-election uncertainties and global geopolitical tensions could undermine investor confidence.
The firm notes that following two years of elevated interest rates, which drove many investors toward fixed income instruments like Treasury Bills and commercial papers, the expected gradual reductions in rates by the Central Bank of Nigeria in 2026 may alter capital allocation patterns. Currently, the Monetary Policy Rate is approximately 26 percent, following a modest cut at the end of 2025. Comercio Partners forecasts two to three additional rate cuts in 2026, potentially reducing the benchmark rate to between 23.5 percent and 25 percent.
Despite anticipated easing, Comercio Partners cautions against completely abandoning fixed income assets. “Investors should avoid concentrating their portfolios in one asset class,” a firm representative said. “While equities may benefit from improving corporate earnings and pension fund participation, fixed income still offers stability. A balanced portfolio helps cushion shocks.”
Furthermore, the firm anticipates more moderate returns on the Nigerian Exchange in 2026 after a significant 51 percent rally in 2025. It warns that risks of capital flight may resurface in the latter part of the year as political activity intensifies ahead of the general elections.
In terms of exchange rates, Comercio Partners projects a base case range of ₦1,400 to ₦1,450 per dollar, with a possibility of a more favorable outcome at ₦1,200, contingent on stronger oil and capital inflow conditions.
While recognizing the advancements made through foreign exchange reforms and improved policy coordination, the firm emphasizes that geopolitical tensions, oil price volatility, and domestic political dynamics remain critical risk factors.
“The message is simple. Diversification is not optional in 2026. It is essential,” Comercio Partners concluded.
