Kurdish opposition mulls whether to trust Trump after Iran uprising call | Israel-Iran conflict News
Uncertainty Surrounds U.S. and Israeli Military Objectives in Iran as Kurdish Opposition Groups Weigh Action
Confusion regarding the military objectives of the United States and Israel is hindering the ability of Iranian Kurdish opposition groups to respond to calls for action against the Islamic Republic, analysts tell Al Jazeera.
Former President Donald Trump’s recent call for a grassroots uprising in Iran, coupled with U.S. claims of being pressured into military action by Israel, has created a murky picture. The U.S. has also faced skepticism regarding its attacks on Iran, with observers questioning whether these were purely defensive measures.
This uncertainty leaves potential allies, particularly Iranian Kurdish groups, unsure how to proceed. Among Iran’s various ethnic factions, the Kurds are regarded as the most organized and militarily adept, with widespread opposition to the Tehran government.
The Kurdish opposition has developed coordinated political networks and engaged in armed resistance against the Iranian government, gaining combat experience alongside other Kurdish movements in the region. They have also made strides in reconciling internal divisions.
On February 22, the newly formed Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan was announced, facilitating collaboration among multiple Kurdish groups from their bases in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region. This announcement came just days before U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, which reportedly resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
While airstrikes have inflicted significant damage on Iran, experts maintain that achieving a complete defeat of the Iranian government requires more than aerial assaults. U.S. public opinion largely opposes direct military engagement in Iran, particularly after the protracted Iraq War. Nonetheless, Trump has suggested that Iranian Kurdish forces could lead a potential ground operation, expressing support for this strategy.
Reports indicate that U.S. officials have begun discussions with Kurdish leaders in northern Iraq regarding potential support for ground operations in Iran. However, Kurdish opposition groups, significantly outnumbered by Iranian ground forces estimated at around 500,000, could only field about 10,000 fighters. This disparity raises the likelihood that they would depend heavily on U.S. or Israeli military aid, including air support and weapon supplies.
The ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. intentions and Trump’s unpredictable nature adds to the Kurdish groups’ apprehension about risking further action. Tehran has warned of severe reprisals against any opposition movements that would arise from U.S. encouragement.
Historical Context of U.S.-Kurdish Relations
Kurdish political opposition to the Iranian regime has been longstanding, according to Kamran Matin, a lecturer in international relations at the University of Sussex. Kurdish activists were forced into northern Iraq in the early 1990s, where they established ties with the Kurdistan Regional Government. Matin asserts that any coordinated offensive against Tehran would require KRG approval.
“If Trump claims victory prematurely, the Iranian government will likely retaliate against the KRG and its populace,” Matin noted. Historical experiences have left many Kurdish groups wary of U.S. support. The 1991 uprising following a call from President George H.W. Bush, which ended in massacre and repression, remains fresh in collective memory.
Similar concerns have also surfaced following the U.S. withdrawal from northeastern Syria in 2019, which exposed Kurdish allies to Turkish military action.
Despite these past experiences, Shukriya Bradost, a Kurdish-Iranian security analyst and researcher at Virginia Tech University, indicated that there is “cautious hope” among Kurdish opposition groups for U.S. support. Yet, there is also fear that the U.S. might broker an agreement with the Iranian government, sidelining Kurdish interests once again.
Potential Risks for Northern Iraq
The majority of armed Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, including the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI) and the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), are based in Iraq’s Kurdish region. Any actions in response to U.S. directives could have severe repercussions for that region, which has a population of approximately 5 million.
Recent attacks by Iran against the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan have escalated tensions. Iranian officials have issued warnings about potential widespread assaults on Kurdish regions if local authorities do not act against alleged U.S. and Israeli-supported dissidents.
Bradost emphasized that the Kurdish Regional Government has expressed a desire to avoid becoming embroiled in conflict with Iran. The KRG, as a non-sovereign entity, remains vulnerable compared to other regional powers and has frequently been among the initial targets of Iranian retaliation.
In light of these historical patterns and the geopolitical landscape, Kurdish groups find themselves at a crossroads. While ideological hesitations and past betrayals contribute to their cautious approach, a weakened Iranian regime might present a unique opportunity for action.
Recent mass protests across Iran indicate widespread unrest, and some analysts believe this discontent could lead to unprecedented support for a Kurdish-led rebellion against the Islamic Republic.
