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It’s anyone’s guess who will win and lose the big finals games in coming weeks – but the stats give some surprising insights into who might just be the match winners and weak links in the matches ahead.
Reece Walsh is arguably the most exciting player in the final series – but he is also the most error prone.
Part of Walsh’s appeal is his all or nothing plays – but they do come at a cost.
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Walsh made 45 errors in 19 games this season – the most in the NRL – and he will find himself placed under massive pressure by the Storm as a result.
Second on the list was another spectacular match-winner – Dominic Young.
The Knights flyer can score a try, but he can also let one in and Ricky Stuart is certain to direct plenty of plays his way after he made 42 errors in 23 games in the regular season.
Adding to Kevin Walters’ pre-match nerves, another Bronco, Selwyn Cobbo, came in third with 35 in 21 games and he will also be feeling the heat from the Storm.
TRYSCORING DANGERMEN
Remarkably, four of the top seven tryscorers in the league came from teams that did not make the finals.
The Dolphins‘ Jamayne Isaako led the league with 24 from 24 games, but of the players involved in the finals, the Knights’ Dominic Young boasts the most dangerous record, just behind Isaako with 23 from 23 matches.
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Souths’ Alex Johnston – another player who won’t feature in finals footy – came equal third with Warriors’ flying machine Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, both on 21.
One behind was another Knight Greg Marzhew – showing the tremendous danger Newcastle poses on both the left and right wings.
FIELD GOAL KING
Only one player in the finals race finished anywhere near the top of the list of landing field goals – Panthers talisman Nathan Cleary.
Veteran Cowboy Chad Townsend led the NRL with five one-pointers, with Cleary landing four.
In another remarkable stat, not another player in the finals landed more than two field goals, giving the Panthers a clear edge should games go to golden point.
BREAKER BREAKER
Dom Young isn’t just a tryscoring machine – he’s also the most dangerous ball runner in the league in 2023 and the man most likely to crack a game open.
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Young made 31 linebreaks for the Knights in the regular season – just ahead of Cronulla’s flamboyant Ronaldo Mulitalo and the Titans’ Alofiana Khan-Pereira, both on 30.
Isaako and Johnston also broke the line 30 times, with Marzhew again up there with 25.
METRE EATERS
Post-contact metres is a crucial stat in modern footy, with the ability to bend the defensive line back seen as a key factor in building attacking momentum.
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The Warriors’ Addin Fonua-Blake dominates this area with 1527 metres – exactly 100 ahead of second placed Payne Haas of the Broncos.
Behind the two props is the Panthers’ tank-like winger Brian To’o, who acts as an extra forward with his fearless charges up the middle that get Penrith out of their red zone.
TACKLE BUSTERS
Greg Marzhew is atop of the list, making him the most dangerous ball runner in the finals and one of the buys of the year.
The Knights are certain to feed him ball and attempt to get him one-on-one with Raiders defenders on the weekend, and he has been lethally effective in beating his man all season.
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In 20 games the tank-like Knight left 171 defenders floundering, well clear of the field.
Next best was Penrith’s Dylan Edwards – always a menace – with 140 tackle breaks from 23 games, followed by yet another Knights danger man, Dane Gagai, with 137 from 20 games.
TRY MAKERS
The Warriors’ Peter Pan, Shaun Johnson, created more tries than any player in the NRL in 2023 and is the man most likely to get the Warriors to the grand final.
Johnson turned back the clock with 27 try assists in 23 games, spurring the Warriors to a shock top four spot.
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Can he do it again in the finals?
Time will tell … reigning Dally M medalist Nicholas Hynes was just behind Johnson with 26 try assists from 20 games and appears to be over a mid-season mini-slump.
Next on the list is the Broncos’ x-factor Reece Walsh and Storm halfback Jahrome Hughes on 21, with Kalyn Ponga the other real danger man with 20.
WEAK LINKS
Defence wins games – and this is never more so than in the tight finals atmosphere.
Coaches will attempt to isolate the little blokes out wide and have their big, mobile ball runners attack them one-on-one – especially near the tryline.
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Canterbury’s Reed Mahoney missed the most tackles in the NRL over the season (1231), followed by the Tigers’ Apisai Koroisau (107).
But of the players still in the race, Brisbane’s Ezra Mam proved the most vulnerable, missing 101 in 22 games – an average of just over five a game.
You can bet that Craig Bellamy will be well aware of this – and Ezra can expect plenty of traffic headed his way.
But on the flip side, the next player on the most misses list comes from Bellamy’s Storm side – Harry Grant with 87 from 22 games.
Grant defends in the middle and will get more protection from his fellow forwards than Mam, but the big Broncos forwards will test him out for sure.
