El Nino reaches super status: Where will it bring rain, drought and heat? | Climate News
El Nino Intensifies, Impacts Global Weather Patterns
A significant El Nino phenomenon is developing in the Pacific Ocean, with implications for weather patterns worldwide. El Nino, characterized by warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, has been classified as “very strong,” surpassing a temperature threshold of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) as reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on September 14, 2026.
The current El Nino began forming in June 2026 and is forecasted to peak in early 2027. Meteorologists describe it as potentially one of the most intense events recorded, with expectations of persistence into the March-May 2027 period.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), El Nino occurrences typically happen every two to seven years. These events often initiate between March and June, peak from November to February, and can last up to 18 months.
Regional Weather Impacts
The effects of a strong El Nino include increased rainfall in regions such as East Africa, South America, and parts of the southern United States, while drought conditions are likely to develop in South Asia, Southeast Asia, Australia, and Southern Africa.
In East Africa, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre projects a 90% chance of above-average rainfall between October and December, which could contribute to significant flooding risks. Similarly, wetter conditions are anticipated for coastal areas of Ecuador and northern Peru early in 2027, followed by southern Brazil, Uruguay, and northeastern Argentina.
Conversely, nations such as India and Pakistan are experiencing below-average summer monsoon rains. The India Meteorological Department has reported a 15% deficit in rainfall from June 1 to September 9. Indonesia is also expected to face drier conditions, leading to heightened wildfire risks, while Australia anticipates below-average rainfall and increased wildfire potential across its southern and eastern regions.
Food Security Concerns
The World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that the ongoing El Nino could lead to an additional 49 million people facing acute hunger by the end of 2027, raising the total number at risk from 225 million to 274 million, particularly affecting regions in Eastern and Southern Africa and Latin America. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization has identified rain-fed crops, such as maize and rice, as particularly vulnerable due to these shifts in weather patterns.
Temperature Projections
Experts indicate that El Nino is likely to contribute to global temperature increases, with the World Meteorological Organization suggesting warmer-than-normal temperatures across many regions from September to November. There is an 86% chance that at least one year from now until 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest on record.
Winter Weather Implications
In North America, El Nino influences winter weather primarily through alterations in the jet stream. This shift typically results in reduced snowfall in central and northern regions while potentially increasing snowfall in the southern United States.
While the WMO notes these patterns based on historical data, it acknowledges that variations can occur each year. The connection between El Nino and European weather is less pronounced, with forecasts indicating a possibility of wetter and stormier conditions in Northwest Europe.
Hurricane Activity Outlook
A strong El Nino usually moderates Atlantic hurricane activity. NOAA’s latest assessment suggests a 75% probability of a below-normal hurricane season, reflecting a pattern where powerful El Nino events correspond with reduced storm activity.
Officials advise caution, as the specific impacts of El Nino can vary by region. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the unprecedented nature of the current phenomena, stating, “The planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up.”
