Why a Democratic win in US midterms could adversely affect Europe | US Midterm Elections 2026
The United States midterm elections are shaping up to be challenging for the ruling Republican Party, as polls indicate Democratic candidates hold an average eight-point lead in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Should Democrats secure victories in one or both chambers, analysts suggest the implications could extend to upcoming elections in Europe.
While the core functions of European governance may not fundamentally shift with a Democratic Congress, experts point to potential consequences that could arise from such an outcome. Notably, some analysts warn that a Democratic victory might foster complacency in Europe regarding the influence of far-right movements. Additionally, there are concerns that former President Donald Trump may increase pressure on Ukraine to strike a peace deal with Russia that it opposes.
“If the Democrats win the House, let alone both houses, it will be interpreted as a sign that democracies can recover,” said Catherine Fieschi, a nonresident scholar at Carnegie Europe who specializes in European far-right politics. She suggested this could prompt debates about the extent of the threat posed by figures like French right-wing leader Marine Le Pen in upcoming elections.
Le Pen is currently leading polls for the French presidential election scheduled for April 18, with approximately 34 percent of the popular vote, according to recent surveys.
Historical precedence supports Fieschi’s caution about complacency. In June 2025, a poll conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations revealed significant divides in public opinion across Europe. While majorities in Western Europe described the U.S. political system as broken, those in Eastern Europe—particularly right-wing voters—portrayed it as functioning well.
Greek Migration Minister Thanos Plevris cautioned against overestimating U.S. influence on European public opinion. He argued that a shift in attitudes toward asylum and economic migration occurred independently, though he acknowledged the U.S.’s role in amplifying these sentiments through more aggressive border policies.
“I believe there was a fundamental change in Europe’s stance on migration,” Plevris said. “Countries that once welcomed refugees, like Germany, have shifted toward more stringent policies. This trend was evident across northern Europe, where societal attitudes evolved.”
He noted that the U.S. shift in tone—from integration to deterrence—may have played a role in shaping European perceptions.
### Implications for Ukraine
Should French voters opt for Le Pen, they would face several contentious policy proposals. These include reducing France’s financial contributions to the European Union budget to fund early retirement, cutting military support to Ukraine, and possibly withdrawing from the euro in favor of a devalued franc. Each of these actions could significantly undermine the European project’s cohesiveness in trade, finance, and security.
A reduction in military assistance to Ukraine could represent a loss of 3.5 percent of its foreign military aid, an impact confirmed by the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker.
Fieschi expressed concern that the U.S. could revert to making deals with Russia under a Trump administration. This scenario could involve pressuring Ukraine into concessions concerning the eastern Donbas region, a move Ukrainian President Volodyr Zelenskyy has denounced as a strategic mistake.
Additionally, Russian military tactics may intensify as the Kremlin seeks to exploit vulnerabilities across the continent, according to Victoria Vdovychenko, a Ukraine expert at Cambridge University’s Centre for Geopolitics. “Cognitive warfare is an ongoing concern for European nations, and existing vulnerabilities are being taken advantage of,” she explained.
### Shifts in European Public Opinion
The changing perception of U.S. leadership has already affected public opinion in Europe. A recent poll conducted by the German think tank Bertelsmann Stiftung revealed that only 31 percent of Europeans view the U.S. as their most trustworthy ally, down from 51 percent just two years prior. Furthermore, 73 percent of Europeans now feel Europe should prioritize its independence from the U.S., up from 63 percent in 2024.
In the latest Spring Eurobarometer survey by the European Commission, 68 percent of respondents supported an enhanced EU role in safeguarding citizens from global crises, while 39 percent prioritized this as a key issue.
A June poll by the European Council on Foreign Relations showed a decline in the perception of the U.S. as an ally, from 22 percent in November 2024 to 11 percent. Additionally, a Pew Research Center survey found that 76 percent of respondents lacked confidence in Trump, and 57 percent viewed the U.S. negatively.
These shifts in sentiment, influenced by two terms of Trump’s presidency and the ongoing war in Ukraine, suggest that any change in European perspectives may take longer than a single congressional election to reverse.
