‘Hegemonic power’: How Modi’s BJP won India’s Bengal for the first time | Elections
New Delhi, India — Seema Das, a domestic worker from New Delhi, recently embarked on a two-day journey to her village in West Bengal to ensure her participation in the provincial elections. Historically a supporter of the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, she cited a shift in her views influenced by her mother-in-law, who claimed that Banerjee, affectionately known as “Didi” (or elder sister in Bangla), favors Muslims.
Das, a Hindu, expressed concern over Banerjee’s governance: “Didi has lost her way and only appeases Muslims to maintain her power.”
This perspective aligns with longstanding criticisms from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which contends that the TMC’s emphasis on religious pluralism undermines Hindu interests. However, Banerjee has maintained control over the state of approximately 90 million people since 2011, even as the BJP has grown in influence in an area where it had previously been marginalized.
On May 4, the BJP saw a significant electoral victory in West Bengal, capturing or leading in 200 out of 294 seats. This marks a remarkable shift as the BJP’s previous best performance was 77 seats in the 2021 elections. Meanwhile, the TMC’s results dwindled, with only 87 seats either won or led.
The West Bengal elections were among five statewide contests whose results were announced on Monday. In Tamil Nadu, actor C Joseph Vijay surprised many by winning with his new party, TVK, while in Kerala, the Congress party defeated a coalition of left parties. A BJP-led coalition also secured victory in the union territory of Puducherry. In Assam, the BJP retained power with a commanding majority.
Analysts have described the West Bengal outcome as the most significant of the elections, attributing the BJP’s success to a campaign strategy that capitalized on religious polarization and anti-incumbency sentiments.
Inside Banerjee’s Bastion
Mamata Banerjee founded the TMC in 1998 after leaving the Congress party, dissatisfied with its responses to the communist coalition that governed West Bengal since 1977. A lawyer and former student activist, Banerjee emerged as a major political force after defeating the communists in 2011. Since Prime Minister Narendra Modi took office in 2014, she has positioned herself as a key opponent to the BJP, particularly in defending the rights of Bengal’s Muslim population.
Despite her established popularity, election observer Rahul Verma noted increasing anti-incumbency sentiments against the TMC. He remarked, “Visible support for Mamata remains, but dissatisfaction with party operations is evident.” Furthermore, he pointed out that the BJP ran a more organized campaign this time.
Analyst Praveen Rai noted that the TMC failed to address voters’ aspirations for change, which contributed to the electoral loss. He argued that the defeat diminishes Banerjee’s potential as a national opposition leader and weakens the political influence of parties opposing Modi.
Voter participation in the election reached about 92.93 percent, a record high in West Bengal.
BJP’s Campaign Strategy
Neelanjan Sircar, a senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research, observed a stark urban-rural divide in voter preferences. He noted that urban voters, particularly men, exhibited heightened polarization. Given that a substantial portion of West Bengal’s population is Muslim, historical assumptions about the BJP’s chances of winning were proven inaccurate during the election.
Suvendu Adhikari, the BJP’s state leader, claimed that the party enjoyed a consolidation of Hindu votes, while also suggesting that Muslim voters shifted their support away from the TMC. Final voting details are pending release by the Election Commission of India (ECI).
The BJP’s success in West Bengal carries symbolic weight, as Shyama Prasad Mukherjee, the founder of the party’s predecessor, hailed from the state.
Voter Roll Controversy
Prior to the polls, the ECI conducted a controversial voter roll revision process that resulted in the removal of over nine million individuals from the voting lists in West Bengal, effectively disenfranchising nearly 12 percent of eligible voters. Many were classified as absentee or deceased, while others faced challenges in contesting their exclusions due to time constraints.
The TMC and opposition parties have criticized the ECI for its hastiness and lack of transparency in the revision process. Activists argue that the revisions disproportionately affected the Muslim population.
Banerjee, contesting the process, approached the Supreme Court, which did not restore the voting rights of the disenfranchised but mandated the ECI to publish a list of affected voters.
The Modi administration deployed a record number of paramilitary troops during the elections, ostensibly to ensure peaceful proceedings. However, opposition parties accused the presence of security forces of intimidation.
While experts agree that the voter revision played a role, they also emphasize that anti-incumbency and religious polarization were key factors in the BJP’s success.
In her response to the election results, Banerjee urged her party members to remain vigilant at vote-counting stations. “We will fight back; we are not afraid,” she declared, emphasizing her commitment to the TMC’s cause. Analysts predict continued tension as the political landscape evolves post-election.
