How long can Iran survive the US’s Hormuz blockade? | US-Israel war on Iran News
Trump Claims Iran’s Economy is Collapsing Under US Naval Blockade
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Former President Donald Trump asserted on Tuesday that Iran is “collapsing financially,” attributing the country’s economic challenges to a U.S. naval blockade of its ports. In a statement posted on Truth Social, Trump claimed, “Iran is collapsing financially! They want the Strait of Hormuz opened immediately – starving for cash! Losing 500 million dollars a day. Military and police complaining that they are not getting paid. SOS!!!”
The U.S. blockade, initiated on April 13, 2026, has involved the seizure of an Iranian-flagged tanker near the strategic Strait of Hormuz and the diversion of vessels carrying cargo to or from Iran. Iranian officials have denounced these actions as “illegal” and equated them to “piracy.”
In retaliation, Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz to foreign shipping and has captured several foreign vessels that it deemed in violation of its maritime sovereignty. Earlier this month, Iran’s First Vice President, Mohammad Reza Aref, emphasized that “the security of the Strait of Hormuz is not free,” indicating that any restrictions on Iran’s oil exports would have consequences for other nations’ shipping safety.
On social media, Iranian parliamentary speaker and key negotiator in the ceasefire talks, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, stated that a complete ceasefire could only be achieved if the U.S. lifted the blockade.
While some analysts suggest that the blockade is inflicting economic damage on Iran, they also posit that the nation possesses both the economic and political resources to endure it.
Impact of the Naval Blockade on Iran’s Economy
Iran relies heavily on maritime exports of oil, gas, petrochemicals, and agricultural products, making the blockade a significant hindrance to its economy. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for approximately 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies. Since the onset of hostilities between the U.S. and Iran on February 28, Iran has effectively controlled this vital waterway while maintaining some levels of oil exports.
In March, Iran exported approximately 1.84 million barrels per day of crude oil, a figure that shows a slight decline compared to April’s average of 1.71 million barrels per day, but remains high. The price per barrel has fluctuated between $90 and over $100, leading to estimated revenues of $4.97 billion in recent weeks. This represents a 40 percent increase in earnings from oil exports compared to pre-conflict levels in February, at which point Iran’s earnings were approximately $115 million per day.
Challenges to Sustaining the Blockade
Experts are assessing the sustainability of the U.S. blockade, particularly as President Trump faces potential legislative constraints. The ongoing pressure on foreign shipping trade in the region raises questions about international relations, especially with nations such as China, which has deemed the blockade unacceptable.
Former U.S. Ambassador Adam Ereli outlined that while the U.S. blockade is a valid strategy, it may not succeed due to the political climate within the U.S. and Iran’s preparedness for such measures. Ereli noted that Iran has developed alternative methods for oil storage and sales that could help mitigate the blockade’s impact on its revenues.
As Iran maneuvers through these challenges, it has developed new methods for generating income, including a “toll booth” system for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Assessment of Iran’s Leadership Resilience
In response to allegations of disunity within the Iranian government, key officials, including Vice President Aref, have asserted that the nation’s leadership remains united in its strategic goals. They argue that despite political differences, the Iranian state operates effectively as a singular entity in times of crisis.
As military tensions escalate, Iran’s capabilities to continue defensive operations and respond to perceived threats from the U.S. and its allies are under scrutiny. Iran has demonstrated its resilience through various means, including asymmetric warfare tactics and coordinated military responses.
The continuing developments in this situation will be closely monitored as both nations navigate the complex landscape of international relations and economic sanctions.
