US soldier charged with using Polymarket to bet on Nicolas Maduro abduction | Government News
The United States Department of Justice has charged an active-duty soldier with criminal offenses related to insider betting on the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, allegedly using classified military information for personal financial gain.
On Thursday, prosecutors accused 38-year-old Gannon Ken Van Dyke of profiting over $400,000 through a series of bets placed on the prediction market platform Polymarket. These bets covered a range of topics, including the likelihood of a U.S. invasion of Venezuela and the timing of Maduro’s removal from office. Officials characterized Van Dyke’s actions as a significant violation of public trust.
According to James C. Barnacle Jr., assistant director at the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), “Gannon Ken Van Dyke allegedly betrayed his fellow soldiers by utilizing classified information for his own financial gain.”
The charges against Van Dyke include three counts of violating the Commodity Exchange Act, one count of wire fraud, and one count of engaging in an unlawful monetary transaction. Each charge under the Commodity Exchange Act and unlawful transaction could result in a maximum sentence of 10 years in prison, while the wire fraud charge could lead to up to 20 years.
The rise of prediction markets—online platforms where individuals can wager on the outcomes of real-world events—has occurred during the second presidency of Donald Trump. Notable figures, including Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., have connections to the prediction market industry.
In January 2025, Trump Jr. was named a “strategic adviser” to Kalshi, a prediction market, shortly before his father’s inauguration. Subsequently, in May 2025, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission ceased its legal efforts against Kalshi, allowing wagers on political events.
The proliferation of these markets has raised concerns regarding potential insider trading among government officials who might bet on events they influence. Reports have circulated about large wagers placed ahead of a U.S. military operation targeting Venezuela on January 3, 2026, including activities attributed to a “mystery trader.”
The indictment unsealed on Thursday sheds light on Van Dyke’s alleged activities. According to the complaint, Van Dyke, stationed at Fort Bragg in North Carolina, created a Polymarket account around December 26, 2025, using a virtual private network to mask his location. He began placing bets concerning Venezuela shortly thereafter, leveraging classified intelligence he had access to.
For example, on December 27, he wagered $96 that U.S. forces would be in Venezuela by January 31. A few days later, he placed a bet of $1,323 on the likelihood that Maduro would be out of office by the end of January. As the military operation approached, Van Dyke increased his gambling activity, betting substantial sums on various scenarios, including the potential for Maduro’s ousting and a U.S. invasion.
Early on January 3, the U.S. launched its military operation against Venezuela, resulting in the abduction of Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. The attack, confirmed at 4:21 AM ET, resulted in numerous civilian casualties.
The indictment alleges that Van Dyke “was involved in the planning and execution of Operation Absolute Resolve,” the military’s codename for the operation, and that he had “material nonpublic information” at the time of each trade related to Venezuela.
Following his reported financial success, Van Dyke allegedly transferred a significant portion of his earnings to a foreign cryptocurrency vault and subsequently contacted Polymarket to delete his account on January 6.
This indictment emerged just a day after Kalshi announced that it had fined and suspended three users linked to the 2026 midterm elections for betting on their own electoral outcomes.
