Ukraine may have turned tide of Russian territorial gains, says think tank | Russia-Ukraine war News
Ukraine Sees Gains in Territory Amid Ongoing Conflict
April marked a potential shift in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, with Ukraine regaining more territory than it lost. An analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank, indicated that Russian forces experienced a net loss of 116 square kilometers (approximately 45 square miles) during the month.
The ISW’s report focused on territory firmly held by each side, excluding zones where both Russian and Ukrainian troops maintain positions. According to the institute, Russian forces have employed infiltration tactics to create the illusion of ongoing advances, supporting Kremlin efforts to exaggerate successes. However, these areas remain outside Russian control, the ISW noted.
Over the past 18 months, the rate of Russian territorial gains has slowed significantly, decreasing by more than two-thirds. In early 2026, Russian forces captured an average of 2.9 square kilometers (1.1 square miles) per day, compared to an average of 9.76 square kilometers (3.77 square miles) during the same period in 2025.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has prioritized the capture of strategic locations in Donetsk, including fortified cities such as Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Konstiantynivka, and Druzhkivka. Ukrainian commander Oleksandr Syrskii reported an increase in Russian assaults in the region during April.
While Moscow claims to be gaining ground in Konstiantynivka, the ISW observed only a marginal infiltration of 10.14 percent of the city, with a gain of just 0.7 percent in its eastern outskirts. Ukrainian officials have raised concerns about Russian casualties, stating that losses exceed the capabilities of recruitment efforts.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov reported that approximately 35,203 Russian soldiers were either killed or seriously wounded in April alone. In March, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy cited Ukrainian intelligence that indicated a casualty rate of 62 percent deaths among Russian forces, a figure higher than previously estimated.
In terms of military strategy, Zelenskyy emphasized a focus on mid-range attacks aimed at disrupting Russian supply lines. Fedorov noted that the number of strikes conducted beyond 20 kilometers (12 miles) from the front lines doubled in April compared to March, and was four times higher than in February.
Attacks on Russian Oil Infrastructure
Ukraine has intensified its operations against Russian oil facilities to undermine export revenue. Recent strikes included the Tuapse refinery on the Black Sea and the Perm refinery, located about 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) inside Russian territory. On May 2, Ukrainian forces utilized surface drones to target oil tankers near Novorossiysk.
Further attacks on May 5 targeted the Kirishinefteorgsintez in the Leningrad region, resulting in the damaged closure of three out of four distillation towers. The Ukrainian government has claimed substantial losses to the Russian oil industry. President Zelenskyy estimated that Russia lost at least $7 billion in oil revenues since the beginning of 2026 due to Ukrainian sanctions and attacks.
However, Russian authorities provided a contrasting picture, with the Finance Ministry reporting that mineral extraction revenues doubled in April. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov recently projected higher oil revenues for May.
Diplomatic Developments with the EU
Ukraine’s aspirations for European Union membership face challenges, particularly from Hungary and Slovakia. However, recent diplomatic engagements may signal a thaw in relations. Zelenskyy recently invited Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico to Kyiv and received an invitation to visit Bratislava.
Fico had previously vetoed Ukraine’s EU membership talks but has since modified his stance. Slovakia’s return of $82 million in cash and valuables previously seized by Hungarian authorities was heralded by Zelenskyy as a constructive gesture.
Despite these developments, public support for Ukraine’s EU accession in Hungary remains limited, with a poll indicating that 54 percent of Hungarians oppose it. Concerns persist regarding Hungary’s participation in EU financial aid for Ukraine as well.
The path to unblocking Ukraine’s EU accession may prove to be a complex and ongoing challenge.
