How US-Iran escalation will test Iraq’s balancing act | US-Israel war on Iran News
U.S. and Iraqi Leaders Discuss Security and Economic Ties
WASHINGTON – During a meeting at the White House on Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump welcomed Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, describing the 40-year-old leader as “young” and “handsome.” The two leaders expressed a desire to strengthen economic ties, focusing on increasing Iraq’s oil production.
“We’re going to be doing a lot of deals,” Trump stated, highlighting Iraq’s potential due to its oil resources. Both leaders pledged to expand economic cooperation during their discussion.
In conjunction with his visit, al-Zaidi is expected to meet with U.S. officials and representatives from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). A source familiar with the plans, who requested anonymity, indicated that Iraq is seeking an IMF loan of up to $8 billion.
This meeting came amid a backdrop of heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Analysts note that al-Zaidi faces a delicate balancing act, as Iraq must navigate its critical relationships with both nations.
Following the meeting, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth emphasized the need for Iraq to disarm Iran-aligned militias within its borders. “Iraq must assert its sovereignty and disarm the Iran-aligned militias,” Hegseth stated, linking these groups to frequent attacks on U.S. forces.
While a reduced U.S. military presence is anticipated, al-Zaidi and Trump confirmed that remaining U.S. forces in Iraq, numbering fewer than 2,000, are expected to withdraw by September 30. On the same date, al-Zaidi committed to a similar timeline for disarming armed factions across Iraq.
Kataib Hezbollah’s Stance
Kataib Hezbollah, part of Iran’s “axis of resistance,” declared its readiness to respond if the U.S. were to attack Iran. “If a war is launched against the Islamic Republic of Iran, the participation of the resistance forces will be immediate and certain,” stated Abu Mujahid al-Assaf, a spokesperson for the group.
Navigating Complex Dynamics
Iraq’s government faces challenges in balancing its agreements with the U.S. while maintaining a functional relationship with Iran. Inna Rudolf, a senior fellow at King’s College London, remarked that while Baghdad is keen to enhance ties with Washington, it will resist being used as a base for attacks on Iran.
“Successive Iraqi governments have sought stability with Tehran, built on long-standing historical and social ties,” Rudolf noted. Approximately 60 percent of Iraq’s population is Shia Muslim, and Iran’s influence is deeply ingrained within many Shia political entities and armed groups in the country.
Recent events, including the funeral of former Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, underscored Iran’s cultural ties to Iraq. Despite ignoring U.S. demands, Baghdad must navigate these relationships with care, as Iranian-aligned militias hold significant sway in both state institutions and parliament.
Impact of Potential U.S.-Iran Escalation
Rudolf warned that further escalation between the U.S. and Iran could have severe consequences for Iraq. “This could produce direct security spillovers,” she noted, cautioning that militias resisting disarmament might strike regional targets, leading to retaliatory attacks.
Such a crisis could exacerbate existing political divisions within Iraq, complicating governance and hindering necessary reforms. The potential economic repercussions could disrupt trade, investment, and humanitarian efforts.
In conclusion, rather than leading to outright conflict, the region faces the risk of increasing tensions and smaller confrontations that could undermine Iraq’s sovereignty and stability.
