Iraq begins high-stakes security balancing act as US troops withdraw | US-Israel war on Iran News
Iraq to Celebrate ‘Sovereignty Days’ Following U.S. Troop Withdrawal
Iraq is preparing to observe four designated “Sovereignty Days,” a national holiday that celebrates the completion of the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the country, marking a significant milestone after over two decades of foreign military presence.
The withdrawal deadline, set for Wednesday, signifies the exit of a few hundred remaining U.S. soldiers who had been involved in advisory roles as part of a coalition operation against the Islamic State (ISIS), which commenced in 2015.
Although the withdrawal plan was initiated prior to Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s administration, it aligns with his broader objective of reaffirming Iraqi sovereignty. This includes an ambitious goal to disarm all armed militias by June 2027, particularly those linked to Iran that have been active in various regional conflicts.
During a recent address at the United Nations General Assembly, al-Zaidi expressed his commitment to ensuring that the Iraqi state plays a decisive role in issues of peace and conflict, asserting that military power should reside with constitutional institutions. He stated, “With the end of the international coalition’s mission in Iraq, we are transitioning our relationship with our strategic partners from military cooperation to economic and developmental collaboration for our mutual interests.”
Al-Zaidi’s strategic vision may also aim to politically diminish the influence of Iranian-backed militias, according to Douglas Silliman, former U.S. ambassador to Iraq and Kuwait. These militias have often cited the presence of U.S. military forces and other foreign actors as justification for maintaining their arsenals. Some have already indicated resistance to disarming.
“The prime minister is clearly attempting to present a political case to the Iraqi populace that these groups, which are closely aligned with Iran and have operated outside government authorization, no longer have a justification for their weapons,” Silliman stated.
This approach carries risks, including a potential increase in Iranian influence and the possibility of domestic instability. Additionally, it may prompt renewed pressure from the U.S. if Iraq-based groups continue to target American assets, leading to challenging decisions for both the militias and al-Zaidi’s administration.
As Iraq adjusts to this new security landscape, the conclusion of the U.S.-led coalition mission, termed “Operation Inherent Resolve,” poses significant challenges for the nation’s future stability. Following the territorial defeat of ISIS in 2017, Iraq has remained relatively stable despite experiencing regional conflict. This stability has persisted since the commencement of U.S. troop withdrawals in 2020, which culminated in the consolidation of military personnel at an airbase in Erbil, located in the autonomous Kurdish region.
To safeguard against instability during this transitional phase, al-Zaidi has postponed the initial deadline to disarm militias from September 2026 to June 2027. He has also received assurances from both U.S. and Iran-aligned factions to refrain from attacks for 90 days post-withdrawal, aiming to prevent immediate conflict.
However, Renad Mansour, director of the Iraq Initiative at Chatham House, cautioned that Iranian-aligned militias remain prepared for confrontation, collaborating with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The potential for these groups to target U.S. interests persists, despite al-Zaidi’s assurances of continued cooperation with Western allies.
Complicating matters, the Iraqi government still faces significant security challenges. Many key security positions, including that of the defense minister, remain unfilled, and the military lacks a robust air defense capability. This could open vulnerabilities, especially against drone and missile threats from pro-Iran militias, as noted by Silliman.
Kurdish leaders have expressed concern over the withdrawal, highlighting increased attacks from Iranian-backed militias on the semi-autonomous Kurdish region. While some U.S. air defense systems remain in Iraq, their absence raises alarms among local officials regarding their capacity to defend against such threats.
The current phase of U.S.-Iraq relations aims to transition from a military focus to an economic partnership. Following the 2003 invasion, U.S. troop withdrawals in 2011 were followed by their redeployment in response to the rise of ISIS. Al-Zaidi aims to revitalize Iraq’s economy, particularly its petrochemical sector, and address supply issues that have arisen amid regional tensions and conflicts.
Despite ongoing discussions about economic integration and promises of partnership, experts warn that regional conflict poses significant obstacles. As a result, there are reservations within certain government factions about fully embracing U.S.-Iraq collaboration, fearing that a diminished U.S. presence could render Iraq vulnerable to Iranian encroachment.
Kristen Talman contributed to this report.
