Brazil’s presidential race: Three key takeaways from the first round | Elections News
Brazil is poised for a closely scrutinized presidential run-off as leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva faces right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro. The electoral court confirmed on Sunday that the two will compete on October 25, after neither candidate secured the majority needed for an outright victory in the first round. Bolsonaro led with approximately 55.8 million votes compared to Lula’s nearly 53.2 million.
Lula, 80, is aiming for a fourth non-consecutive term after a political career spanning nearly five decades. Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, seeks to carry on his father’s right-wing movement, even as the former president serves a 27-year prison sentence for his role in an attempted coup after the 2022 elections.
This election comes at a critical juncture for Brazil, the largest economy in Latin America. Voters are contending with significant issues such as crime and rising living costs, while the country’s relationship with the United States has grown increasingly strained. The outcome also carries implications for a region that has seen a notable shift toward the right in recent elections.
The first-round results diverged from many pre-election predictions, setting the stage for another confrontation between Lula and Bolsonaro, four years after Lula narrowly defeated Jair Bolsonaro. With nearly 99 percent of votes reported, Bolsonaro received about 47 percent of valid votes, just ahead of Lula’s 44.9 percent, failing both to cross the required 50 percent threshold.
Polling indicated a closely contested match, suggesting that voters who backed other candidates in the first round will play a critical role in the upcoming election. Some candidates, such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, who collectively garnered around 5.3 million votes, have stated they will not endorse either candidate.
Bolsonaro’s performance was stronger than many polls suggested, raising questions about why his support was underestimated. Following the results, he asserted that the electorate is seeking change. Analysts noted that Bolsonaro may have gained from “protest votes” from supporters of alternative candidates who prioritized defeating Lula. They cautioned, however, that this initial advantage may not translate into robust support in the run-off.
In response to the unexpected results, Lula acknowledged his optimism going into the first round but expressed determination to refocus efforts for the upcoming contest. “The game is about to start,” he remarked, positioning himself as prepared for the challenge ahead.
Additionally, right-wing parties, particularly Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party, performed well in congressional elections, potentially emerging as a dominant force in both chambers. The political success of the “bolsonarista” movement remains significant, evidenced by the elections of key figures like former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro and Carlos Bolsonaro to the Senate.
The congressional results could impact Lula’s ability to enact his policy agenda if he secures another term, while a Bolsonaro victory might provide him with more latitude to pursue his priorities, including advocating for an amnesty for his father.
