How the Gulf will manage collective security after the Iran war ends | US-Israel war on Iran News
Gulf States Contemplate Long-Term Security Solutions Amid Ceasefire Talks with Iran
As negotiations for a long-term ceasefire agreement progress between Washington and Tehran, Gulf states are assessing their future security strategies in the aftermath of regional conflict.
U.S. President Donald Trump recently cancelled proposed military strikes on Iran, suggesting that a deal with Tehran could be on the horizon. He indicated that a time and place for the expected signing of the agreement would be announced soon.
In Tehran, officials have adopted a more cautious stance. A senior Iranian official stated the government is still evaluating a proposed Memorandum of Understanding with the United States.
Comments by Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif hint at a potential agreement, which could have significant implications for regional security.
Attacks on Gulf States
The United States maintains military facilities at 19 locations throughout the Middle East and North Africa, including permanent bases in Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Prior to the conflict with Iran, between 40,000 and 50,000 U.S. troops were stationed in the region.
Historically, the U.S.-Gulf alliance has insulated these nations from conflicts affecting other areas. However, over the past four months, Gulf states with U.S. military installations have come under attack from Iranian forces.
Dr. Mahjoub Al-Zuwairi, an expert in Middle Eastern politics, noted that since the 1980s, security partnerships have defined the region’s security model. “Countries have aligned their security with broad international coalitions,” he said. “This model has provided a deterrent effect and indispensable logistical and intelligence support.”
Iranians in Tehran attend the funerals of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps commanders, army officers, and others killed in U.S. and Israeli strikes, March 11, 2026 [AFP]
A Complex Security Landscape
The ongoing conflict has exposed vulnerabilities in the once-reliable security framework. Although Iranian officials have termed their Gulf neighbors “brothers,” they have conducted attacks against them during the conflict.
Since the United States and Israel began their offensive against Iran on February 28, at least 28 people have been killed across the six Gulf Cooperation Council states as a result of suspected Iranian drone and missile attacks. This has raised questions about the effectiveness of the U.S.-Gulf security partnership.
Simon Mabon, a professor of international relations at Lancaster University, noted that the conflict has shattered the prevailing sense of security. “The U.S. security umbrella is either ineffective or increasingly irrelevant,” he stated. “Gulf states must acknowledge the reality of their relationship with Iran.”
Economic Implications of the Conflict
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has posed challenges for Gulf nations striving to diversify their energy-dependent economies, though the impact has not been uniform.
Saudi Arabia has rerouted some oil exports via its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea, while Oman, whose ports are outside the strait, has benefited from increased energy prices. Conversely, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar have faced significant challenges due to their reliance on the waterway for energy exports. However, the war has spurred renewed discussions on security and economic arrangements.
Dr. Mabon remarked, “While new pipelines are being developed, their capacity is minimal compared to the Strait.”
Reevaluating Relations with Iran
This conflict may prompt Gulf states to consider engagement with Iran rather than ongoing confrontation. Notably, the United Arab Emirates restored diplomatic ties with Tehran in 2022, and a year later, Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to normalize relations in a deal brokered by China.
Al-Zuwairi suggests that recent events could revitalize regional security initiatives, potentially leading to new frameworks that include Iran, Iraq, and other GCC members. However, existing distrust—exacerbated by Iranian strikes on Gulf nations—complicates the prospects of such agreements.
He stated, “Despite the theoretical appeal of a non-aggression pact, it is practically untenable unless Iranian behavior shifts.”
Future Security Arrangements
Gulf nations might explore a hybrid defense strategy, maintaining ties with Washington while also considering regional defense investments. A recent mutual defense agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan could serve as a model, affirming that an attack on one would be viewed as an attack on both.
Historically, Gulf states have reacted divergently when they perceived abandonment by the U.S. Some, like the UAE and Bahrain, deepened ties with Israel. However, the current paradigm may push these countries towards a collective response to security threats.
Al-Zuwairi emphasized, “The recent conflict has demonstrated that all guarantors, regardless of their commitments, prioritize their own interests. The Gulf must take responsibility for its own security, as proximity to conflict often comes with high costs.”
