Why Mogadishu clashes are deepening Somalia’s political crisis again | Conflict News
Mogadishu, Somalia – As election tensions rise in Somalia, local residents are expressing their fears. Mustafa, a 33-year-old bajaj driver, described the atmosphere in Mogadishu as increasingly charged. “When polls are near, the whole city feels it,” he said, recounting his experience on Wednesday when heavy gunfire erupted in the Hawl Wadaag district.
Mustafa was caught in the chaos as clashes broke out between government and opposition forces. “I couldn’t even think. Everyone was shouting and running for their lives,” he told Al Jazeera, characterizing the situation as some of the worst fighting seen in years.
The violence began in the vicinity of the homes of former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire and former President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, coinciding with the opposition’s plans to protest what they claim is an illegal term extension by the current president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. Both Khaire and Sheikh Ahmed were leading the protests in response to heightened tensions with the federal government.
The government has warned that such protests could further jeopardize security in a city still grappling with ongoing armed violence. Hundreds of families have evacuated neighborhoods near the conflict area, and central parts of Mogadishu became noticeably deserted. This outbreak of violence disrupted a period of relative calm, shattering the perception that the city was improving in safety.
“The most frustrating thing is that we have nothing to do with it, and it impacts so many of us,” Mustafa said, emphasizing his dependence on a stable environment for his livelihood.
In response to the violence, security forces sealed Maka al-Mukarama Road, a key thoroughfare, and the Bakara market, the city’s largest commercial center, was effectively shut down. Street vendor Ahmed noted the contrast, observing that the market, usually bustling at midday, was largely empty.
Ali Wardheere, the deputy central bank governor, estimated that businesses and services could incur losses of approximately $3.8 million due to the recent unrest. However, he clarified that this figure is a model-based projection rather than an official assessment.
Somalia has not conducted a national vote for its leaders since the late 1960s, with the current electoral process relying on an indirect system negotiated by clan elders and political elites. Political competitions often intensify as presidential terms near expiration, leading to disputes and occasional violence over electoral timelines.
In a late May press conference, Sheikh Ahmed underscored the potential for violence to arise from the ongoing political deadlock. “Where do things stand? [We say] Leave, and [you say] I won’t leave. What comes next? Bullets,” he warned, recalling events from 2021 when the former president’s extended term prompted clashes in Mogadishu.
The current situation carries increased stakes. President Mohamud claims that constitutional amendments approved by parliament extended his mandate by an additional year, a point contested by the opposition, which has begun referring to him as a “former president.” Discontent among two influential federal states further complicates the political landscape, with no constitutional court available to adjudicate disputes.
After parliament greenlit the amendments, Mohamud indicated that his government would proceed with its agenda despite opposition insistence that his term has concluded. The rising tensions in advance of planned protests led opposition leaders to leave their fortified locations, raising concerns of potential confrontation.
Both sides have exchanged accusations regarding the initiation of hostilities. Khaire attributed the violence to a “sustained and indiscriminate military assault” ordered by Mohamud, while Defense Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi accused the opposition of militarizing the political standoff.
The roots of this crisis trace back to the 2012 provisional constitution, which established a federal parliamentary system based on consensus and clan power-sharing. Since then, subsequent governments have repeatedly failed to achieve these foundational goals.
Contestation arose earlier this year as parliament amended the constitution, a move that elicited objections from multiple political factions. Ahmed Abdi Koshin, a federal MP who boycotted the process, expressed concerns about the potential fragmentation of the political settlement.
The opposition, organized as the Somali Future Council, is urging Mohamud to recognize the end of his mandate and engage in negotiations for a new electoral framework. They contend his push for a direct vote is a strategy to prolong his hold on power.
The government defends the push for a direct election as crucial for progressing its state-building agenda. Mohamad Ibrahim Moalimuu, a lower-house MP who supports the amendments, argued that further delays are unjustifiable, stressing that a legitimate election could offer renewed hope to a population that has never cast a ballot.
Amidst these challenges, experts note that broader regional crises and a deteriorating humanitarian situation in Somalia complicate the political landscape. Calls for unified leadership and consensus-building have intensified as citizens increasingly feel the consequences of ongoing instability.
