Why Lebanon may make or break the Iran-US deal | Israel attacks Lebanon News
Beirut, Lebanon — A newly signed memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran calls for the “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon,” involving both nations and their allies. This interim agreement, signed on Wednesday, emphasizes the cessation of hostilities in Lebanon.
Despite this agreement, Israel has continued its military operations in Lebanon in the days following the MoU. Since the beginning of Israel’s air and ground offensive on March 2, the death toll in Lebanon has surpassed 4,000. Israeli strikes have also resulted in the postponement of planned negotiations between Iran and the U.S., originally set for Friday in Switzerland.
Both Hezbollah, the Lebanese armed group, and the Lebanese government have expressed a need for a complete Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory. However, Hezbollah has suggested linking the withdrawal to the Iran negotiations, while the Lebanese government advocates for direct discussions with Israel.
“Lebanon is at the beginning of the agreement because the Iranians want to emphasize that Lebanon’s territorial integrity is essential to its success,” said Michael Young, a Lebanon expert at the Carnegie Middle East Center.
Israel’s Military Actions and International Response
Israel’s hostilities with Hezbollah began in October 2023 and escalated during significant conflicts in September 2024 and March of this year. The March escalation was prompted by a Hezbollah attack on Israel, coinciding with the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and a series of Israeli ceasefire violations.
Since these conflicts began, Israeli military actions have resulted in over 4,057 deaths and more than 12,121 injuries in Lebanon, with reports of targeting of civilians, including paramedics and journalists. Despite several attempts by the U.S. to facilitate ceasefires in Lebanon, the situation on the ground remains volatile.
U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that Israel should reduce its military actions, but Israeli officials maintain the necessity to continue operations as a security measure. “Israel is fighting Hezbollah too long, and too many people are being killed,” Trump said at a recent G7 summit. “They should have been able to do the job faster.”
Analysts suggest that the inclusion of Lebanon in the MoU indicates Iran’s strong interest in the situation and that the U.S. may exert pressure on Israel to cease military actions. David Wood, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group, noted the possibility for the U.S. to assist Lebanon in achieving a bilateral ceasefire with Israel.
Hezbollah and the Path Forward
In light of ongoing tensions, the role of Hezbollah in this situation remains contentious. Iran must determine its course of action should Israeli attacks continue unimpeded by U.S. pressure. There are reported divisions within Iran regarding the extent to which it should intervene to halt Israeli aggression in Lebanon.
Despite hopes for an end to hostilities in Lebanon following the MoU, unresolved issues persist. Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem recently acknowledged Iran’s influence in linking Lebanon’s situation to a broader resistance initiative.
As negotiations between Israel and Lebanon are scheduled to continue next week, the issue of Hezbollah’s disarmament remains central. The Lebanese government has initiated efforts towards disarming Hezbollah, but these were interrupted by renewed Israeli operations.
“Lebanon’s political leadership faces a complex challenge under the U.S.-Iran MoU,” Wood said. “While Lebanon aims to assert control over its future, external support will likely be essential in navigating the ongoing conflict with Israel.”
