Pakistan wins Indus waters battle at The Hague, but India threat remains | India-Pakistan Tensions News
Hague Court Rules Against India’s Suspension of Indus Waters Treaty
Islamabad, Pakistan – A court of arbitration in The Hague has determined that India cannot unilaterally suspend the Indus Waters Treaty, dismissing all arguments presented by New Delhi that justified its decision to hold the six-decade-old water-sharing agreement “in abeyance” since April 2025.
In a unanimous decision released on Monday, the five-member tribunal found that the treaty “remains fully in force,” and emphasized that India is obligated to adhere to its commitments, including regulations concerning the design and operation of hydropower projects on rivers flowing into Pakistan.
This ruling marks the first instance of an international court assessing the legality of India’s decision to suspend the treaty. Following a lethal attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that claimed the lives of 26 civilians, India announced its suspension in April 2025, insisting that it would only resume compliance once Pakistan “credibly and irrevocably” ceased its alleged support for cross-border terrorism. Pakistan has denied any involvement in the attack.
India has consistently rejected the jurisdiction of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA), despite having previously acknowledged its mandate in other matters. Following Pakistan’s case submission to the PCA, India did not participate in the hearings leading up to Monday’s verdict.
In swift response to the ruling, India condemned the verdict, asserting that the court was “illegally constituted” and maintaining that its decision to suspend treaty obligations would remain in place until claims of cross-border terrorism are definitively resolved.
Reactions from Islamabad and New Delhi
After India placed the treaty in abeyance, Pakistan sought a PCA ruling on the treaty’s status in March 2026, citing concerns about enforcement of an agreement that may no longer apply. Although the court reached out to India to participate, it did not respond, resulting in hearings that occurred over the course of three days in late April 2026 with only Pakistan in attendance.
Throughout the proceedings, the court addressed the various justifications presented by India: assertions of sovereignty, claims that Pakistan was unwilling to renegotiate, concerns surrounding terrorism, as well as considerations regarding demographic growth, clean-energy requirements, and climate change. All arguments were rejected by the tribunal, which concluded that no international law permits a state to unilaterally suspend a treaty based on sovereign rights.
Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar welcomed the decision. “Pakistan welcomes the unanimous Award of the Court of Arbitration, which decisively rejects India’s unlawful attempt to place the Indus Waters Treaty ‘in abeyance’ and reaffirms that the Treaty remains fully in force and binding on both parties,” he stated on X. “India must fully comply with its obligations under the Treaty and with the binding decisions of its dispute settlement mechanisms.”
Conversely, India’s Ministry of External Affairs quickly refuted the ruling, reiterating its position regarding the treaty’s suspension.
Legal Implications and Enforcement Challenges
Experts indicated that while the ruling bolsters Pakistan’s legal standing, it does not provide a clear mechanism for enforcing compliance. Ahmer Bilal Soofi, an international law specialist and former caretaker federal law minister for Pakistan, characterized the ruling as providing Pakistan with a strong legal basis for considering potential countermeasures under international law.
Sikander Ahmed Shah, a professor of international law at the Lahore University of Management Sciences, noted that India’s absence from the hearings does not undermine the ruling’s significance. “This is a PCA judgment, and its value and precedent under international law carry real weight,” he explained.
Despite the ruling, neither party has a formal enforcement mechanism akin to that of a United Nations Security Council directive. Pakistani officials have outlined their expectations for compliance, including the reactivation of the Permanent Indus Commission, which has not convened since May 2022.
Pakistan claims that India has halted routine river-flow data sharing and prevented necessary inspections in violation of treaty stipulations. Dar recently emphasized the need for both countries to enhance technical dialogue and cooperation on water-sharing.
Growing Tensions Amid Ongoing Dispute
Since India’s decision to suspend the treaty, Pakistani officials have expressed increasing concern over what they describe as an existential threat posed by the water-sharing dispute. During a seminar in June, Pakistan’s Indus Waters Commissioner emphasized the importance of predictable water flows for state survival.
Federal Minister for Climate Change Musadik Malik referred to the issue as a “crisis of justice,” while former Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari characterized the dispute as an infringement on Pakistan’s sovereignty. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has also warned that any threats to Pakistan’s water resources would be met with a “crushing response.”
Amid these escalating tensions, experts caution against viewing the breakdown of the treaty as an immediate existential crisis, noting that geographical factors largely protect Pakistan’s water supply. Nonetheless, concerns regarding water management remain, with critiques suggesting that Pakistan may benefit more from improving irrigation efficiency than from new dam constructions.
