2027: If you sample 1,000 Nigerians, 900 won’t vote for Tinubu — Henry Shield
Political analyst Henry Shield has expressed doubts about President Bola Tinubu’s ability to replicate the vote total he achieved in the 2023 presidential election. In an interview on Vanguard’s Politics Hub, Shield predicted that a majority of Nigerians would not support Tinubu if a nationwide opinion survey were conducted.
Shield’s forecast stems from what he described as extensive consultations, surveys, and interactions with various segments of the Nigerian population. “We conduct market consultations and street surveys. Based on our engagements, I can tell you that of every 1,000 Nigerians sampled, 900 are not likely to vote for Tinubu,” he stated.
He urged media organizations and stakeholders to independently verify his assertion through their own surveys, emphasizing the importance of accurately gauging voter sentiment as the 2027 election approaches. “Please don’t take my word for it. Conduct a survey; engage with 1,000 individuals. Sample exactly 1,000,” he said.
In the 2023 election, Tinubu secured 8,794,726 votes, accounting for 36.61 percent of the total votes cast. Former Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate Atiku Abubakar finished in second place with 6,984,520 votes, or 29.07 percent, while Labour Party candidate Peter Obi received 6,101,533 votes, representing 25.40 percent.
As the political landscape evolves, all three figures—Tinubu, Atiku, and Obi—are anticipated to play significant roles in the 2027 presidential race, despite changes in their party affiliations. Atiku has transitioned from the PDP to the African Democratic Congress (ADC), while Obi has shifted from the Labour Party to the Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC).
