Bolsonaro favourite to win: What Brazil’s first round of elections tells us | Elections News
Bolsonaro Surges Ahead in Brazil’s Presidential Race, Setting Stage for Run-off with Lula
BRASILIA, Brazil (AP) — Right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro has outperformed expectations in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election, securing a narrow lead over incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. This result necessitates a run-off election scheduled for October 25.
“Brazil wants change, and I am very happy with the results,” Bolsonaro told reporters in Brasilia on Sunday, marking what he called “the end of the era of [Lula’s] Workers’ Party.”
Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence related to a coup plot following his election defeat in 2022. Lula, now 80, seeks a fourth nonconsecutive term.
Pre-election polls had indicated a tight race between Bolsonaro and Lula, with projections showing Lula ahead by about 3 percentage points. In a surprising outcome, Bolsonaro received 47 percent of the vote, while Lula garnered 45.1 percent. Neither candidate reached the necessary threshold of 50 percent to secure an outright victory in the first round.
In a repeat of the past electoral cycle, the upcoming run-off will pit the two against each other four years after Lula narrowly defeated Jair Bolsonaro in 2022.
Bolsonaro’s unexpected performance is expected to energize his campaign and provide a boost to Brazil’s currency and stock market, which have shown positive movement in light of a potential business-friendly administration.
Oliver Stuenkel, a professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in Sao Paulo, noted that Lula faces a challenging path ahead, as voters of the other candidates—who collectively obtained nearly 8 percent of the vote—are predominantly center-right and may not turn to him in the second round. About 30 million Brazilians, representing 21 percent of the electorate, abstained from voting in the first round.
Al Jazeera’s Monica Yanakiew, reporting from Rio de Janeiro, highlighted concerns among Lula’s supporters regarding his effective use of social media compared to his opponents. “This is something they have to work on in the second round,” she stated.
Historically, Stuenkel emphasized that it is rare for a candidate finishing second in the first round to ultimately win the presidency, a trend that has held since 1989.
Bolsonaro Family’s Political Momentum Gathers Strength
The Brazilian political landscape has seen multiple members of the Bolsonaro family secure significant victories in the general elections. Michelle Bolsonaro, the wife of former President Jair Bolsonaro, successfully won a Senate seat in the Federal District, while Carlos Bolsonaro, the former leader’s second son, emerged as the second most-voted senatorial candidate in Santa Catarina state.
The fourth son, Jair Renan Bolsonaro, was elected to the lower house of Congress. Some analysts attribute the political ascendance of the Bolsonaro family partly to widespread antipathy towards Lula’s Workers’ Party, which has bolstered support for Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party, which won 121 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, significantly outpacing Lula’s party, which secured 70 seats.
Potential Consequences of a Bolsonaro Victory
The implications of Brazil’s presidential election extend beyond national boundaries, affecting regional and international relations. Lula has been on a contentious path with U.S. President Donald Trump, who has expressed strong support for Bolsonaro.
Al Jazeera’s Lucia Newman noted that Brazil’s position as a major player in the geopolitical rivalry between the U.S. and China is critical, particularly concerning economic ties. Bolsonaro’s alignment with the U.S. is expected to strengthen if he is elected, as he has pledged to support his father’s congressional efforts for amnesty.
Concerns about foreign influence in Brazil’s domestic politics have arisen during the campaign, with Lula accusing the Trump administration of interfering through economic measures.
Vinicius de Carvalho, a lecturer in Brazilian studies at King’s College London, also stressed the ongoing right-wing trend in Latin America, as countries like Ecuador, El Salvador, Panama, and Paraguay have shifted to U.S.-aligned governments. In contrast, Lula represents a continuation of the “pink tide” of left-leaning governance that rose in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Should he win reelection, Lula would need to navigate demands from a Congress largely composed of conservative lawmakers.
