Four years into the Ukraine war, Moscow sees vindication, not failure | Russia-Ukraine war
As Ukraine War Enters Fifth Year, Russian Elites Maintain Confidence in Strategy
As the conflict in Ukraine approaches its fifth anniversary, Russian political leaders remain resolute in their support for President Vladimir Putin’s decision to initiate the war in February 2022. They maintain a belief that the war is concluding on terms favorable to Russia.
A notable aspect of this conflict is the divergence between Russian officials’ expectations and analyses presented by Western media and experts. Many in the West view Russia’s goals as rooted in a desire for imperial dominance, aiming to reassert control over significant parts of Europe akin to Soviet times. However, Russian motivations appear to be more pragmatic and opportunistic, centered on establishing a sharp boundary against NATO’s expansion toward its borders, which they interpret as a strategy for isolating Russia.
Additionally, hawkish elements within Putin’s administration have historically thrived on the West’s antagonism. There exists a symbiotic relationship between these security figures and Western military-industrial interests, benefiting both parties with financial incentives and power. The war in Ukraine, often perceived by Russians as a proxy battle against NATO, has enabled Russian security elites to dismantle the pro-Western liberal opposition that challenged their influence.
Putin’s decision to invade also drew from recent historical context, particularly developments between 2019 and 2021 when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy sought improved relations with Russia, resulting in a fragile ceasefire in Donbas. Under pressure from Ukraine’s security establishment and influenced by Western hawks, Zelenskyy shifted his approach to Russia, culminating in a bid for NATO membership and opposition to the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, particularly after President Joe Biden’s inauguration in January 2021.
In March 2021, Putin began troop deployments near Ukraine, leading to increased tensions before the invasion. Throughout this period, Western allies appeared more inclined to confront Russia than to prevent an escalation.
When the invasion commenced, it followed a strategy reminiscent of Russia’s 2008 war in Georgia, aiming for a swift, decisive operation to instill fear in Ukraine’s leadership and compel compliance with a stricter version of previously established Minsk agreements. Initial Russian tactics relied on rapid advances to avoid prolonged conflict but underestimated Ukrainian resilience and the impact of Western military support.
Following failed peace talks, attributed to Western interference, Russia refocused its efforts on a drawn-out conflict in Donbas while formally annexing four occupied Ukrainian regions. Over the next four years, both Ukraine and Russia faced significant tests of resilience. Russian officials perceive themselves as underdogs against a formidable Western military apparatus that, they argue, uses Ukraine as a proxy.
Despite early predictions of a collapse of the Russian military and economy, both have demonstrated resilience. In fact, Russia reported an economic upturn in the initial years of the war, while the Russian military adapted to the evolving nature of warfare.
As the conflict reaches its fifth year, the human cost remains considerable, with estimates of casualties in the range of 200,000 to 219,000. The war’s toll primarily impacts lower socioeconomic classes, while urban middle classes in Russia largely experience a continuity of lifestyle.
With a sense of impending victory, Putin appears poised to leverage the situation, anticipating that Western leaders, heavily invested in the war’s outcomes, will ultimately have to reconcile with the realities on the ground.
In 2023, there may be numerous obstacles to direct peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Delays in establishing a settlement carry severe consequences, including further loss of life and damage to critical infrastructure in Ukraine. The prolonged conflict may foster resentment among Ukrainians toward both the war’s instigators and their Western supporters.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance of Al Jazeera.
