FMDA forecasts 16.42% April inflation rate amid fuel, food prices surge
FMDA Projects April Inflation Rate of 16.42% Amid Rising Fuel and Food Prices
By Yinka Kolawole
The Financial Market Dealers Association (FMDA) has forecasted that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate will rise to 16.42% year-on-year in April 2026, marking a shift from previous months of decline. This increase is attributed to persistent pressures from food prices, elevated energy costs, and challenging global commodity conditions.
In its April 2026 Inflation Forecast report, the FMDA noted that this projected inflation rate signifies a rise from the 15.38% recorded in March 2026. This change represents the first consecutive monthly acceleration in annual inflation since mid-2025.
The report highlighted a steady decrease in inflation, which had fallen from a peak of 27.35% in March 2025 to 15.06% in February 2026 before this recent uptick.
On a month-to-month basis, the forecast indicates a headline inflation rate of 2.78% in April, a reduction from the 4.18% observed in March. However, this figure remains high in comparison to the broader disinflation trend noted during the latter half of 2025.
FMDA attributed the anticipated increase primarily to ongoing pressures from food and energy prices, coupled with tightening conditions in the global commodity market.
The average price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) increased to N1,322.50 in April, up from N1,208.38 in March, reflecting a rise of 9.44%. Although this increase was slower than the 37.35% surge seen in March, higher fuel prices continue to impact transportation and production costs.
Additionally, the domestic food price index rose to 3.69 points in April from 3.60 points in March, driven by increases in essential staple prices. Notably, yam prices surged by 3.98%, while other staples such as watermelon, maize, millet, and sorghum also experienced moderate price increases.
Despite these inflationary pressures, the FMDA identified potential mitigating factors. The naira appreciated by 1.36% to an average of N1,361.22 per dollar in April, compared to N1,379.98 in March, and the rate of fuel price increases showed signs of slowing.
However, the report cautioned that worsening conditions in global commodity markets could continue to exert inflationary pressure in the forthcoming months.
