Oil revenue falls N7.88trn below budget target in Q3’25
Nigeria’s Oil Revenue Falls Short of Budget Targets in Q3 2025
By Emma Ujah, Abuja Bureau Chief
Nigeria’s oil revenue significantly underperformed expectations in the third quarter of 2025 (Q3 2025), with gross oil revenue reported at N4.87 trillion. This figure reflects a shortfall of N7.88 trillion, or 61.8%, compared to the quarterly budget projection.
The Budget Office of the Federation (BoF) released these findings in its Q3 Budget Implementation Report, which also indicated that the federal government experienced a fiscal deficit of N328 billion during the quarter.
The report outlined ongoing revenue challenges in both oil and non-oil sectors, revealing that total federal government revenue was N7.7 trillion, while expenditures reached N8.03 trillion. The resultant fiscal deficit was financed through privatization proceeds and domestic borrowing. The aggregate federal government revenue constituted 75.16% of the prorated target for the period.
Aggregate expenditure, which included Government Owned Enterprises (GOEs) and project-tied loans, was N8.03 trillion—approximately 58.4% of the prorated budget target of N13.75 trillion. The oil sector’s performance was highlighted as a key contributor to this revenue shortfall.
The average price of crude oil on the international market in Q3 2025 was $68.50 per barrel, down by $5.50 (7.43%) from $74.00 in Q2 and $6.50 (8.67%) lower than the $75.00 benchmark set in the 2025 budget. Furthermore, daily oil production averaged 1.64 million barrels, a decline from both the 1.68 mbpd in the previous quarter and the production benchmark of 2.12 mbpd.
Despite the downturn in oil revenue, non-oil revenue saw a slight increase, totaling N6.52 trillion, marking a rise of N468.58 billion (7.74%) over the quarterly estimate of N6.05 trillion.
The report also indicated that the net distributable revenue for the three tiers of government, after accounting for deductions, stood at N10.29 trillion, which represented a shortfall of N6.57 trillion (38.98%).
A major concern outlined in the Q3 report was the high cost of debt servicing, which amounted to N3.41 trillion—significantly surpassing the N2.66 trillion allocated for non-debt recurrent expenditure. The expenditure on non-debt recurrent activities fell by N739.01 billion (21.75%) from the quarterly estimate.
For the quarter, total debt service was recorded at N3.41 trillion, down by N171.90 billion (4.80%) from the projected N3.58 trillion. Domestic debt servicing accounted for N1.80 trillion, with actual expenditures exceeding projections by N111.07 billion (6.18%). In contrast, external debt service reached N1.69 trillion, which was N211.72 billion (12.55%) below the projected figure for the quarter.
