Why UK’s Makerfield by-election matters far beyond one parliamentary seat | Politics News
Makerfield Faces Pivotal By-Election as Political Stakes Rise
MANCHESTER, England — The by-election in Makerfield, a constituency in northwest England, is set to take place Thursday, potentially reshaping the political landscape not just locally, but nationally. The election follows the resignation of former Member of Parliament Josh Simons, who stepped down to allow Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to contest the seat. A victory for Burnham could position him as a contender to challenge UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer for leadership of the Labour Party.
Simons’ resignation was announced after a disappointing performance by Labour in recent local elections, in which the party lost nearly 1,500 council seats, paving the way for a strong showing by the far-right Reform UK party. Starmer is currently facing calls to resign due to these electoral setbacks and the recent resignations of key party members, including Defence Secretary John Healey.
The contest in Makerfield is notable not only for its local implications but also due to the rising challenges to Labour from Reform UK. Robert Kenyon, the party’s candidate, has faced controversy over alleged sexist remarks made on social media yet remains a formidable contender in the polls. Reform UK finished second to Labour in the last general election and is seen as a serious threat, especially as Labour has held the constituency since its establishment in 1983.
The Political Climate in Makerfield
The by-election comes at a time when Labour’s popularity has significantly declined, despite a sweeping victory in the 2024 general election. Support for Reform UK has surged, particularly as the party has successfully attracted disillusioned former Conservative voters and segments of Labour’s traditional working-class base. Recent polling indicates that Starmer is now the most unpopular prime minister in recorded history, according to Ipsos.
In a shifting political environment, Burnham has emerged as a preferred alternative among party members. Though he cannot currently run for Labour leadership as he is not a sitting MP, his candidacy in Makerfield is seen as a pathway to restoring a leadership position within the party.
Simons noted in his resignation announcement that Labour was headed for a divisive leadership race without the energy to effect change. He emphasized Burnham’s strong local ties, stating, “Andy Burnham has lived here for 25 years. He is coming home.”
Candidates and Campaigns
Andy Burnham, Labour’s candidate, is a well-known figure in Greater Manchester, having served previously in various cabinet roles under former prime ministers Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. His reputation has been bolstered by his responses to local crises during the COVID-19 pandemic and his advocacy for victims of the Hillsborough disaster. Burnham’s agenda includes promoting “Manchesterism,” which focuses on combining pro-business policies with public control over essential services.
Burnham’s appeal extends to Labour’s working-class base, particularly in former industrial regions that have increasingly shifted toward Reform UK.
In contrast, Robert Kenyon represents Reform UK, a party that has gained traction through its anti-immigration stance and discontent with the political status quo. Kenyon’s candidacy, however, has been marred by historical social media posts, leading some critics to question his viability.
Additionally, the newly formed far-right party Restore Britain, led by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, could complicate the election dynamics by attracting votes from both Reform UK and Labour. The Conservative candidate, Michael Winstanley, a former mayor of Wigan, is running but is not expected to make a significant impact given recent local election results where the Conservative Party failed to secure any seats.
Polling Insights
Current polling suggests a competitive race primarily between Labour and Reform UK. A recent Opinium survey indicates Burnham holds a slight lead over Kenyon, with 46% of likely voters favoring Burnham compared to 41% for Kenyon. However, Restore Britain, with an anticipated 7% of the vote, could disrupt the dynamics, particularly if their supporters are drawn from Reform UK.
Looking ahead, tactical voting may play a crucial role in the outcome. Voters aligning with minor parties who wish to prevent a Reform UK victory may coalesce around Burnham, as noted by Tom de Grunwald, founder of Forward Democracy.
As the election approaches, political analysts caution that the outcome should not overshadow the growing influence of Reform UK, which poses a continued challenge to traditional Labour strongholds.
