US push for unified Libyan government tests Tripoli factions | Conflict News
Tripoli, Libya — Libya’s political crisis has reached a pivotal moment amid a surge of regional diplomacy and intelligence activities. A new initiative, supported by the United States, aims to resolve the country’s institutional divide and unify its executive bodies, garnering significant support in eastern Libya and challenging Western factions to respond.
The initiative, spearheaded by Massad Boulos, U.S. presidential adviser for Middle Eastern and African affairs, seeks to establish a unified government, integrate state institutions, and foster American investments in the oil sector. While Boulos positions this plan as a complement to ongoing United Nations efforts, it has sparked debate about whether the U.S. can effectively bridge traditional divides within Libya or if it will merely contribute to a history of failed settlements.
Support from Western Libya
The long-standing political quiet in western Libya was disrupted on June 21 when Abdul Hakim Belhaj, a prominent political figure and former commander of the Tripoli Military Council, publicly endorsed the U.S. initiative.
Currently leading the al-Watan Party, Belhaj urged the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) to clarify its stance on the proposal, framing it as an opportunity to expedite solutions to the current political fragmentation. He emphasized that any potential agreement must focus on what is “possible and acceptable,” rather than an ideal that may not be attainable.
Belhaj’s endorsement holds considerable weight, as his political influence, despite waning in recent years, resonates within the region. His support follows endorsements from military commander Khalifa Haftar and over 100 members of the eastern-based House of Representatives (HoR).
Aisha al-Tabalqi, an HoR member, remarked that the U.S. initiative is notable for promoting an understanding between the key factions that hold sway in Libya. She suggested that the emergence of support from Western leaders could enhance the initiative’s likelihood of broader acceptance.
However, disagreements about the initiative’s backing persist. Mohammed al-Maazab, a member of the High Council of State, indicated that several HoR members were listed as supporters without their consent. He described Belhaj’s backing as an attempt to position himself within future political arrangements, calling it a “leap in the air” that is unlikely to shift the power dynamics significantly.
Concerns Over Power Sharing
Libyan analysts have expressed skepticism regarding the details of the American proposal, fearing it may entrench a long-term power-sharing arrangement rather than foster democratic governance. In a recent Al Jazeera Arabic broadcast, political analyst Abdulsalam al-Rajhi criticized the effort, characterizing it as leaning more towards a deal than a genuine initiative. He posited that Boulos, lacking significant diplomatic experience, is looking for a swift geopolitical win.
Al-Rajhi noted that the plan reportedly aims to place Saddam Haftar, son of military leader Khalifa Haftar, at the head of a new Presidential Council, while Ibrahim Dbeibah, nephew of current GNU Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, is suggested as the potential new prime minister. Both individuals have been mentioned in recent reports detailing illicit activities, including oil smuggling.
Conversely, political analyst Senussi Ismail acknowledged the risks associated with family-centric rule while advocating for calculated engagement with Boulos’s initiative. He stressed the necessity of merging the U.S. proposal with the existing UN roadmap and insisted that any new unified government must adhere to strict timelines for presidential and legislative elections, ensuring a definitive end to indefinite power retention.
William Lawrence, a former U.S. diplomat and current professor of international affairs, defended American engagement. “The first step Boulos can take is to find economic solutions and unify Libya’s economic institutions,” he stated, emphasizing the importance of pursuing a sustainable solution.
Increased Regional Activity
The discourse surrounding the U.S. initiative coincides with heightened regional diplomatic activity. Last week, foreign ministers from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye convened with Boulos in Cairo to address the situation in Libya. Concurrently, Pakistan announced the establishment of a new “R-4” regional mechanism, involving Pakistan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye, intended to bolster regional stability.
This diplomatic initiative is paralleled by significant intelligence undertakings within Libya. Egyptian intelligence chief Hassan Rashad recently visited Tripoli for discussions with GNU Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, while Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin met with Saddam Haftar in Benghazi to discuss institutional unification and stability.
Faisal Bwalraiga, a national security researcher, remarked that these concurrent activities reflect international efforts to create a conducive environment for new political arrangements. “Libya is currently navigating between two avenues: establishing a new political settlement or recalibrating the balance of power among various factions,” he stated.
So far, the GNU has not released an official position on the U.S. proposal. Political analyst Elias al-Barouni suggested that the government’s cautious approach aims to maintain political maneuverability and await a definitive stance from Washington.
