War and heat: Why are wheat prices soaring? | Agriculture News
Wheat Prices Surge Amid Ongoing Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Climate Challenges
Wheat prices have surged significantly in recent weeks, driven by ongoing disruptions in Black Sea exports due to the Russia-Ukraine war and adverse weather conditions leading to droughts that have severely impacted production.
In the last month, both Russia and Ukraine have intensified attacks on each other’s grain terminals along the Black Sea. As the largest wheat exporter globally, Russia plays a crucial role in the market, while Ukraine ranks among the top ten grain-producing countries. These military actions have created notable strains on the global grain supply chain.
On Friday, Chicago wheat futures, the benchmark for the global grain market, reached a three-year high before declining by 0.54 percent to $7.79 per bushel by 02:00 GMT Monday. Meanwhile, the Rostov region of Russia declared a state of emergency due to port closures and navigational disruptions in the Sea of Azov and Black Sea, resulting in a backlog of agricultural products at local farms.
In addition to the conflict, rising temperatures and insufficient rainfall threaten this year’s wheat harvest in South Africa’s Swartland region, which is responsible for approximately 20 percent of the country’s wheat production.
Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on Wheat Prices
The ongoing conflict has severely disrupted shipping schedules during a critical export season, with recent attacks on ports, vessels, and grain facilities causing significant delays. Ukrainian missile strikes have impacted Russian grain exports, while Ukrainian drone attacks in the Sea of Azov have also curtailed Russian shipments. Increased military action around Russian ports such as Novorossiysk and Taman has driven up shipping costs.
According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Infrastructure, July alone saw 35 Russian attacks on vessels at ports, 22 at sea, and 67 targeting port facilities. For context, Ukraine recorded only 14 vessel strikes throughout all of 2025.
Kyiv’s agricultural minister reported that recent Russian airstrikes have destroyed approximately 90 percent of food logistics capacities for retailers. These disruptions have contributed to rising wheat prices and heightened concerns over global food security.
Joe Glauber, a research fellow emeritus at the International Food Policy Research Institute, emphasized that the issue is not necessarily a shortage of wheat but rather the escalating costs associated with transporting it to consumers. “There’s plenty of wheat in Russia and Ukraine; it’s just not accessible at reasonable prices right now,” he stated.
Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, typically spends around $3 billion annually on imports, sourcing more than 82 percent of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine in the first half of 2026. Indonesia, the second-largest wheat importer, purchased approximately $361 million of wheat from Ukraine and $102 million from Russia between 2023 and 2024. An official from Indonesia’s Flour Millers’ Association indicated that current supplies can meet immediate needs, but additional sourcing from countries such as Bulgaria and Australia may be necessary.
Climate Change’s Role in Rising Prices
The combination of the ongoing war and shifting climate conditions has further impacted wheat production. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates a decline in U.S. wheat yields, projecting an average of 46.7 bushels per acre, down from 54.9 bushels per acre last year. If realized, this figure would represent the lowest yield since 2015.
The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service also forecasts that Canada’s wheat production for the 2026-2027 season will decrease by 13 percent, totaling 34.6 million metric tons due to lower planted areas and yields. European weather conditions have similarly hampered wheat production, with excessive heat expected to reduce grain output in 2026 by around 9 million metric tons.
Climate phenomena, including the El Niño weather pattern, are anticipated to bring drier conditions to the Southern Hemisphere, further exacerbating existing drought issues in regions such as South Africa and Australia.
Potential Solutions to Address the Crisis
In response to the ongoing crisis, the Black Sea Grain Initiative was established in July 2022 to facilitate exports of grain, food, and fertilizer from Ukrainian ports, aiming to stabilize global food prices. This agreement proved effective, with over 1,000 ships transporting grain and food supplies from Ukraine until Russia terminated the initiative in July 2023.
Experts note that resolving the current crisis demands significant shifts in the conflict’s dynamics and the implementation of climate-resilient agricultural policies. Improving water management on farms through reservoir systems could support drought-affected crops and prevent production losses.
While alternative shipping routes exist, they often incur higher costs. Glauber suggested that a renewed Black Sea Grain Initiative could significantly stabilize wheat markets. He also pointed out that other countries had previously stepped in to alleviate shortages during price surges in 2022, citing that India reached record export levels during that time.
As the situation continues to evolve, the resilience of the global wheat market will be tested, with the potential for further challenges posed by climate change and geopolitical developments.
