Will the Houthi attacks activate the Mecca Pact? | Houthis
Yemen’s Houthi rebels have captured the strategic Mocha port and pose a potential threat to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a crucial waterway. In addition to this territorial gain, the Houthis have launched attacks on several Saudi cities, resulting in approximately 70 injuries, including women and children.
The recent escalation in hostilities raises significant concerns regarding the operational effectiveness of the Mecca Pact, a mutual defense agreement among Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan. The ongoing assaults on Saudi infrastructure, including energy and defense facilities, coupled with maritime blockades by Iran and the Houthis, have intensified discussions about regional security arrangements.
The Houthi attacks open the possibility for the mutual defense agreement to be activated. Analysts are now pondering the implications of potential Pakistani and Turkish interventions if Saudi Arabia were to call for assistance.
The geopolitical landscape has shifted as the United States, historically the primary security partner for Gulf nations, has indicated that regional countries must assume more responsibility for their own defense. While American support remains vital, it is becoming increasingly limited. Since the conflict involving the U.S. and Israel against Iran escalated, the United States has struggled to provide comprehensive defense for its Gulf partners and has often failed to prevent attacks on its own bases in the region.
In response to these challenges, Gulf nations are re-evaluating their defense strategies. In September 2025, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan initiated their first mutual defense agreement, which was expanded in August to include Turkey, forming what is now known as the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement. The three nations have established a joint secretariat in Riyadh, with Pakistan assuming the chair for an initial three-year term.
Currently, the Mecca Pact remains in its formative stage. The agreement does not publicly specify the thresholds or scenarios that would trigger direct military intervention, and essential elements such as rules of engagement and mechanisms for collective defense are still under development.
On Monday, Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif stated that any unprovoked aggression against Saudi Arabia, or spillover effects from the Yemen conflict, would activate the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement. However, he did not provide details regarding the nature of such operationalization. Last month, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan indicated that the pact would function similarly to NATO, where a member state must formally request assistance and specify its needs if it is attacked.
NATO’s Article 4 permits member states to seek consultations and information exchange, while Article 5 ensures mutual assistance but permits each state to determine the type of support it receives. When Syria shot down a Turkish warplane in 2012, Ankara invoked Article 4 for consultations, specifically requesting Patriot missile defense batteries rather than direct military intervention. NATO approved this request, deploying systems to protect Turkish airspace.
If the Mecca Pact is activated, it would be up to Saudi Arabia to articulate the type of military support it requires. Should Riyadh ask for direct Pakistani military intervention beyond material and intelligence assistance, Islamabad would be obligated to respond. However, the specifics and scale of the response would likely require consultation among the parties involved.
As of now, the agreement has not been tested, as Saudi Arabia has yet to invoke it with either Pakistan or Turkey. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts continue, with Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud engaging with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Islamabad has publicly called on Iran to restrain the Houthis and has reaffirmed Pakistan’s commitment to Saudi defense under the pact. Turkey is expected to play a similar diplomatic role.
If diplomatic efforts fall short and Houthi attacks persist, both Turkey and Pakistan are likely to enhance the air and technological support they already provide to Saudi Arabia. Islamabad currently deploys about 16 JF-17 Thunder multirole aircraft, defense systems, and thousands of troops within Saudi borders.
However, a direct military operation by Pakistani forces in Yemen appears unlikely at this time. Given the historical consequences of Pakistan’s involvement in the Afghan war on behalf of the U.S., officials are wary of engaging in conflict against Iran and its allies, concerned about potential repercussions in Pakistan’s western provinces and the broader societal implications.
The more probable scenario involves Pakistan increasing diplomatic pressure on Iran, augmenting its defensive support for Saudi Arabia, and advocating for a multinational naval coalition to secure the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. This approach would preserve the essence of the Mecca Pact while fostering regional de-escalation.
The new security framework established by agreements like the Mecca Pact is expected to take years to develop fully. Until the protocols for collective response are formalized, Pakistan’s existing bilateral defense partnerships with Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations will remain focused on addressing immediate defense needs.
