An extra 229,000 deaths: Is that the cost of US-UK drugs deal? | Health News
Research Links UK-US Pharmaceutical Deal to Potential Excess Deaths
A recent study published in the British Medical Journal (BMJ) warns that a pharmaceutical trade agreement between the United Kingdom and the United States could lead to an estimated 229,000 additional deaths in the UK. The study attributes this figure to a diversion of billions of pounds from the National Health Service (NHS).
In December 2022, the UK and US finalized a pharmaceutical trade deal that eliminates tariffs on UK pharmaceutical and medical technology exports to the US for three years. In exchange, the British government pledged to increase NHS spending on new US medicines from 0.3% of its gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026 to a minimum of 0.6% by 2036. This commitment would increase overall medicine spending within the NHS from 10% to 12% of its budget.
UK officials, including Science Minister Patrick Vallance, have defended the agreement, asserting that it provides NHS patients access to innovative treatments that they might otherwise lack. Vallance emphasized that the deal positions Britain as the first country to benefit from a zero-percent tariff on pharmaceutical goods exported to the US, which could stimulate growth in the country’s life sciences sector.
However, the BMJ study suggests that the commitment to increase spending on new branded medicines, without additional NHS funding, will incur “substantial opportunity costs” that could adversely affect public health. Professor Samuel Cross, a coauthor of the report from the University of Liverpool, indicated that the agreement appears to favor pharmaceutical companies while endangering patient outcomes.
The study revealed that if spending targets are met and economic growth aligns with forecasts, the NHS would require an additional £1.3 billion ($1.73 billion) annually by 2028, escalating to £8.8 billion ($11.74 billion) by 2036. Over the duration of the agreement, these costs could total approximately £44.7 billion ($59.7 billion).
According to the research, the potential rise in the NHS budget may also lead to increased costs in publicly funded adult social care. Modeling suggests that for every £1 billion the NHS allocates to accommodate the deal, adult social care costs could rise by £118 million ($157.5 million), due to higher morbidity and mortality rates.
The study predicts that by 2036, reduced NHS expenditure could lead to nearly 229,000 excess deaths, surpassing the loss of life experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic. If the implications for adult social care are considered, that figure could increase to 291,000.
These findings underscore existing pressures on the NHS, including significant unmet healthcare needs. Cross highlighted that the finite nature of NHS funding means that reallocating resources to pharmaceuticals escalates opportunity costs, impacting other essential services.
The research also identifies cardiovascular, respiratory, gastrointestinal, and cancer patients as likely to be disproportionately affected. There are expectations of decreased quality of life for patients with various health conditions, including neurological and mental health disorders.
The report casts doubt on the government’s assertions that the US-UK agreement will spur pharmaceutical innovation within the UK. It notes that the UK’s relatively small share of the global pharmaceutical market limits its influence on international investment decisions.
Cross concluded that with funds diverted from the NHS, compensating for the impact of this agreement on public health is unfeasible. He called for a comprehensive impact assessment from the government to facilitate public discourse regarding the potential ramifications of the US-UK pharmaceutical trade deal.