Is Ethiopia on the verge of another civil war as fighting erupts in Tigray? | Conflict News
Intensive clashes between Ethiopia’s federal army and forces from the Tigray region have heightened concerns about the potential collapse of a peace agreement that ended a two-year conflict in November 2022.
The resurgence of violence follows the formation of a new alliance among seven armed groups across Ethiopia, aimed at toppling Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. Each side has accused the other of instigating the latest hostilities.
The renewed fighting raises fears among many Ethiopians of a return to the warfare they have been trying to recover from for nearly four years.
### Background of the Conflict
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) originally emerged in the 1970s as an armed resistance against Ethiopia’s military government, eventually becoming the dominant force in a governing coalition that lasted nearly three decades. The Tigrayan population comprises approximately 6 percent of Ethiopia’s diverse ethnic makeup.
In 2018, Abiy Ahmed became prime minister and established the Prosperity Party, which supplanted the previous governing coalition, diminishing the TPLF’s influence. Tensions escalated, leading to armed conflict in November 2020, which involved federal troops, Eritrean forces, and fighters from the Amhara region against Tigrayan forces. The conflict resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths, the displacement of millions, and severe humanitarian crises in the Tigray region.
A peace agreement signed in Pretoria, South Africa, in November 2022 concluded large-scale hostilities but left unresolved tensions.
### Drivers of Renewed Hostilities
A key point of contention is western Tigray, where Amhara fighters, who supported government forces during the previous conflict, have gained control. Tigrayan leaders are demanding the return of this territory and the repatriation of displaced individuals. Conversely, many in the Amhara region contest Tigray’s claims, arguing that the territory should not have been designated as part of Tigray during the redrawing of regional boundaries in 1992.
In addition, both sides accuse each other of violating the terms established by the peace agreement, particularly regarding the surrender of weapons by Tigrayan forces and the withdrawal of external military presence in the region.
### The New Alliance
This month, seven armed factions announced the formation of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival. Members include the TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement, and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), among others. Although these groups have differing backgrounds and objectives, they collectively oppose the Abiy administration.
This alliance represents a significant shift, as Fano fighters, previously aligned with federal forces against the TPLF, are now collaborating with them. The TPLF and Amhara fighters, despite their current partnership, continue to have conflicting claims over western Tigray.
### Recent Developments on the Ground
Recent weeks have seen increased small-scale skirmishes and drone strikes, escalating in southern Tigray and spilling over into the Afar and Amhara regions. The sides blame each other for the latest bout of violence, complicating independent verification of claims regarding territorial gains and individual attacks.
Reports indicate significant fighting occurred in the town of Abala, located on the border of Tigray and Afar. Ethiopia’s federal army has claimed to have killed over 270 rebel fighters, although this figure remains unverified.
Control of transportation routes has also been disrupted, with Tigrayan forces reportedly taking over airports in Mekelle, Axum, and Shire. The African Union has highlighted that such actions contravene the Pretoria agreement, while approximately 750,000 people remain displaced in Tigray due to the prior conflict.
### Potential for Regional Escalation
While analysts recognize the risk of broader conflict, they assert that the situation has not yet devolved into a full-scale civil war. Ongoing violence has already extended beyond Tigray as the federal government contends with multiple armed conflicts across the nation.
Regional dynamics may also complicate matters. Eritrea, which fought alongside the Ethiopian government in the previous war, has seen relations worsen with Addis Ababa. The African Union has called for an immediate cessation of violence and urged dialogue aimed at revitalizing the peace agreement. Former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, who played a role in mediating the 2022 deal, has been asked to engage with the involved parties promptly. The East African bloc IGAD has similarly called for restraint from neighboring countries to prevent escalation.
